Long Term Human Response To Sea Level Change

Mark Golitko博士(圣母大学)和他在巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)的同事将在巴布亚新几内亚北部海岸进行环境和考古综合调查，以评估生活在那里的人们如何应对中期全新世(约7000-3000年前)的快速气候和环境变化。沿海居民特别容易受到环境变化和自然灾害的影响，例如热带风暴和海啸。预计未来几个世纪环境变化性的增加和海平面的上升将许多此类社区置于危险之中，增加了社会动荡和可能大规模迁出较贫穷沿海地区的可能性。预测的气候变化类似于全新世中期发生的变化，当时略有变暖的全球气候淹没了许多沿海地区。新几内亚北海岸位于地震频发和海啸频发的构造活动区，受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)循环的影响，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)循环交替产生多年干旱和极端降雨。在全新世中期，ENSO循环加强，与此同时，沿海滩涂的发展可能支持了不断增加的人口。目前，生活在西南太平洋沿海地区的人们利用各种风险管理战略，包括种植西米棕榈树等有韧性的树种，以及保持广泛的社会联系，以便在需要时利用。这项拟议的研究将考察巴布亚新几内亚北海岸的人们如何在中期全新世期间应对不同程度的生态风险，包括植树的古老程度、社会网络的范围以及相对的人类人口水平。研究小组将采用土壤取芯和考古调查挖掘相结合的策略。土壤取芯将确定环境的变化，包括古代海啸事件的证据。将使用核心样本(花粉、木炭)的环境指标来检查人口水平的相对变化以及人类对森林构成的影响程度，包括推广西米棕榈树等经济作物。在岩石避难所和古代泻湖边缘进行的考古调查和挖掘将检查土地利用的强度，并为物质文化的运输提供证据，表明古代社会网络。全新世中期是一个流动性增加的时期，在此期间，新的思想和做法开始在西南太平洋广泛传播。结果将表明，在气候快速变化的背景下，人们对这一景观的利用程度有多高，他们在缓解生态风险方面取得了多大的成功，人口增长有多快，以及这些生态变化可能在多大程度上促进了更广阔的西南太平洋的流动性。该项目将作为未来几个世纪类似沿海地区气候和环境变化预期结果的检验案例。该项目还将生成新的古代气候数据集，用于了解ENSO循环和气候变化的长期模式，以及了解人类在热带森林构成和保护中的作用。此外，该项目将为新几内亚考古学家和美国本科生和研究生提供培训。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的学术价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Dr. Mark Golitko (University of Notre Dame), with colleagues in Papua New Guinea (PNG), will conduct combined environmental and archaeological survey on the north coast of PNG to assess how people living there responded to rapid climatic and environmental changes during the mid-Holocene period (~7000-3000 years ago). Coastal dwellers are particularly vulnerable to environmental variability and natural disasters, for instance tropical storms and tsunamis. Anticipated increase in environmental variability and rising sea-levels during the coming centuries place many such communities at risk, increasing the likelihood of social unrest and potentially large scale migration out of poorer coastal areas. Predicted climatic changes are analogous to those that occurred during the mid-Holocene period, when marginally warmer global climate inundated many coastal areas. The north coast of New Guinea lies along a tectonically active zone with frequent earthquakes and resultant tsunamis, and is affected by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which produces alternating years of drought and extreme rains. The ENSO cycle intensified during the mid-Holocene at the same time that developing coastal flats may have supported increasing populations. At present, people living in coastal areas of the Southwestern Pacific utilize a variety of risk management strategies, including growing resilient tree crops such as sago palm, and maintaining wide-ranging social ties that can be drawn upon in times of need. The proposed research will examine how people on the north coast of PNG coped with varying levels of ecological risk during the mid-Holocene period, including the antiquity of tree-cropping, extent of social networks, and relative human population levels. The research team will use a combined strategy of soiling coring and archaeological survey and excavation. Soil coring will establish changes in environment including evidence of ancient tsunami events. Environmental indicators from core samples (pollen, charcoal) will be used to examine relative changes in population levels and the degree of human impact on forest composition, including the promotion of economic crops like sago palms. Archaeological survey and excavations in rock shelters and along the edges of ancient lagoons will examine the intensity of land use and provide evidence for transport of material culture, indicative of ancient social networks. The mid-Holocene was a period of increased mobility during which time new ideas and practices began to widely circulate in the Southwestern Pacific. Results will indicate how intensely people used the landscape in the context of rapid climatic shifts, how successful they were at mitigating ecological risk, how rapidly population grew, and to what extent these ecological changes may have promoted mobility in the broader Southwestern Pacific. The project will serve as a test case for anticipated outcomes of climatic and environmental change during the coming centuries in similar coastal areas. The project will also generate new ancient climate datasets of use for understanding the ENSO cycle and long-term patterns of climatic variability, as well as understanding the human role in tropical forest composition and conservation. Additionally, the project will provide training to New Guinean archaeologists and US undergraduate and graduate students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.