Collaborative Research: HDR Elements: Software for a new machine learning based parameterization of moist convection for improved climate and weather prediction using deep learning

该项目针对天气和气候预测中的一个难题——对流的表示。对流的准确表示是很重要的，因为大多数当前的模式预测都依赖于它。解开对流条件、云和气溶胶所涉及的物理问题可能需要数年的建模才能完全理解；然而，一组机器学习技术，被称为“神经网络技术”，可能会在过渡期间提供增强的可预测性，而这个项目探索了它们的潜力。该项目开发了一个Python库，可以在广泛的科学领域中使用机器学习（人工神经网络）。重点是在更大尺度气候模式中整合对流和云的形成，以社区地球系统模式（CESM）为初始目标。该项目开发了一套新的机器学习气候模型参数化，以减少天气和气候预测的不确定性。神经网络将在明确解析对流的高保真模拟上进行训练。两种类型的高分辨率模拟将用于训练神经网络：1)增强超参数化模拟，以及2)基于马克斯普朗克研究所提供的ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic （ICON）建模框架的完整全球云解析模型（GCRM）模拟，使用初始5公里水平分辨率。这项工作有可能增加对对流动力学和跨尺度过程的理解，并有可能实现解决其他尺度问题，在这些问题上，要在比主网格分辨率更小的尺度上表示过程，计算成本太高或不切实际。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project targets a difficult problem in weather and climate prediction -- the representation of convection. Accurate representation of convection is important, since a majority of current model predictions depend on it. Unraveling the physics involved in convective conditions, clouds and aerosols may take years of modeling to fully understand; however, a set of machine learning techniques, known as "neural net techniques", may provide enhanced predictability in the interim, and this project explores their potential.The project develops a Python library enabling the use of machine learning (artificial neural networks) in a broad range of science domains. The focus is on integration of convection and cloud formation within larger-scale climate models, with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) as an initial target. The project develops a new set of machine learning climate model parameterizations to reduce uncertainty in weather and climate predictions. The neural networks will be trained on high-fidelity simulations that explicitly resolve convection. Two types of high-resolution simulations will be used for training the neural networks: 1) an augmented super-parameterized simulation, and 2) a full Global Cloud Resolving Model (GCRM) simulation based on the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) modelling frameworks provided by the Max Planck Institute, using initial 5km horizontal resolution. The effort has the potential to increase understanding of convection dynamics and processes across scales, and could potentially be implemented to address other scale problems as well, where it is too computationally costly or impractical to represent processes occurring at much finer scales than the main grid resolution.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.