Analysis of coastal zone development trough space/time modelling

拟议项目的目标是建立一个模型，描述波罗的海南部下沉海岸的地理、生态和社会经济系统之间的相互作用。调查的时间跨度包括自公元前8000年Littorina海侵开始以来的过去千年和未来几个世纪。将在数据库驱动的地理信息系统中收集沉积物记录、考古发现、海平面标志物和SINCOS期间和拟议项目内获得的日期材料等定性和定量数据，并将其作为古环境和预测情景的替代数据。除了在SINCOS开发的海侵-海退模型外，一个沉积物输运模块将提高这些研究的重要性，将海岸形态的演变，如障壁沙嘴和泻湖结合起来。调查将在波罗的海南部的区域范围内进行，并在两个当地框架内，维斯马尔湾和吕根岛，揭示由分离的Darss Sill控制的海侵历史。此外，对于预测性情景，有关地壳均衡响应的信息和描述海平面上升的气候模拟数据可作为模拟的输入。结果将以设想图的形式提供，这些设想图将为沿海区管理提供帮助。

The target of the proposed project is the development of a model to describe the interactions between geo-, eco-, and socio-economic systems for the sinking coasts of the southern Baltic Sea. Time span to be investigated comprises the past millenia since the beginning of the Littorina transgression at 8000 BC and future centuries. Qualitative and quantitative data like sediment records, archaeological findings, sea level marker, and dated material acquired during SINCOS and within the proposed project will be assembled within a database driven GIS and serve as proxy data for palaeo and predictive scenarios. In addition to the transgression-regression model developed in SINCOS a sediment transport module will enhance the significance of these studies integrating the evolution of coastal forms like barrier spits and lagoons. Investigations will be carried out at a regional scale for the southern Baltic Sea, and within two local frames, the Wismar Bight and the Island of Rügen, revealing the transgression history controlled by the separating Darss Sill. Additionally, for predictive scenarios information about isostatic response of the earths crust and climate modelling data describing eustatic sea level rise serve as input for modelling. Results will be delivered as scenario maps which shall provide assistance assisting in coastal zone management.