Analysis of coastal zone development through space/time modelling

通过时空模型分析沿海地区的发展

• 批准号: 5385667
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Jan Harff
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2001-12-31 至 2006-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5385667?language=en
• 关键词: Analysis; coastal; zone; development; through

The research program targets the development of models that mirror the relation between driving forces and reactions of the geo/eco/socio-economic system described by qualitative and quantitative variables at the sinking coasts of the southern Baltic Sea on time scales of millennia. The cause and effect relation will be described by different types of models, from multivariate statistical approaches to differential equations, depending on the quantification of the processes' description. These models are to be used for reconstructions of the history of the system and its components as well as for the derivation of prognostic scenarios relative sea level change by forward modelling. Proxy-variables which can be measured at geo/biological samples and artifacts that represent the palaeo processes play a key role in the historical reconstruction by calibrating the models for forward modelling. The development of a high resolution time scale ranging between 8.000 calendar years BC (beginning Litorina transgression) and 2800 AD (end of climate prognosis) based on physical and biological methods of dating is needed for the process description. The spatial and temporal indication will be given by a space/time geoinformation system, to be developed in part within the project. Results will be presented as regionalisations of geo-, eco- and socio-economic parameters as functions of time.

该研究计划的目标是开发模型，反映在千年的时间尺度上，波罗的海南部下沉海岸的定性和定量变量所描述的地质/生态/社会经济系统的驱动力和反应之间的关系。因果关系将通过不同类型的模型来描述，从多元统计方法到微分方程，这取决于过程描述的量化。这些模型将用于重建该系统及其组成部分的历史，以及通过正向模拟推导相对海平面变化的预测情景。可以在代表古过程的地质/生物样品和人工制品处测量的代理变量通过校准模型进行正演模拟在历史重建中起着关键作用。根据物理和生物测年方法，需要开发一个高分辨率的时间尺度，范围从公元前8000年（开始Litorina海侵）到公元2800年（气候预测结束），用于过程描述。空间和时间指示将由一个空间/时间地理信息系统提供，该系统将在项目范围内部分开发。结果将作为地理、生态和社会经济参数随时间变化的区域化。