CAREER: Adaptive Investments for Resilience of Electricity Infrastructure Systems

该学院早期职业发展(Career)计划项目将：(I)产生新的决策理论和模型，以帮助政府政策制定者制定激励措施，促进公私企业资本形成和对电力基础设施系统的投资；以及(Ii)在发生中断时调查并提供自我组织的恢复计划。受生物系统的自我修复特性的启发，如形态发生(适应环境变化的基因)和伤口愈合(再生引起的细胞功能变化)，这个职业项目将通过将现实主义和经验数据纳入具有实际意义的模型中来扩展复杂适应系统的范例，例如为增强系统弹性而对特定电力技术组合投资多少。除了在激励电力市场参与者方面创造新的决策理论外，一个成果将是为政策制定提供决策支持平台，以加强公共-私营企业对社区复原力努力的参与。为了将研究内容融入教育活动，该项目将：(I)将社会创新和创业精神纳入各级学生；(Ii)创建一个分层次的Makerspace学院，通过将项目任务纳入正式和非正式学习过程，为高中和STEM学生提供建立经验和分析决策模型的知识；(Iii)将经济学、运筹学和生物学的方法与工程学知识相结合。多学科方法将有助于扩大代表不足的少数群体对研究的参与，并对工程教育产生积极影响。这项研究是预测分析和稳健随机优化模型的结合点，预测分析用于预测电力中断，稳健的随机优化模型用于在政策和技术表现的顺序和多重不确定性下确定对能源技术投资组合的投资。该项目将把这些方法整合到一个受生物启发的复杂适应系统框架中，以评估以业绩为导向的动态投资，并使用情景分析来提炼增强复原力的电力技术组合的门槛。PI将系统修复过程解释为基础设施衰败、运行状态/环境、适应性、冗余性和资产分散的可能性的动态功能，以限制损害传播和停机时间延长的灾难倾向。该框架将利用具有广域测量系统数据的多重泰勒级数函数在改进的IEEE母线测试系统中进行系统稳定性预测。该项目将借助综合评估模型，如全球变化评估模型(GCAM)和可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，结合物理系统退化的数学表示，评估具有弹性的基础设施系统在系统相互依存的更大方案中的价值。如果成功，这个职业项目将提供对多学科方法有效性的第一次科学测试。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) Program project will: (i) generate new decision theories and models to help government policymakers in crafting the incentives to advance public-private enterprise capital formation and investments into electricity infrastructure systems; and (ii) investigate and provide self-organized restoration plans in the advent of a disruption. Inspired by the self-healing properties in biological systems such as morphogenesis (genes adapting to environmental changes) and wound healing (functional changes in cells due to regeneration), this CAREER project will expand the paradigms of complex adaptive systems by incorporating realism and empirical data into models that have practical implications such as how much to invest in a particular electricity technology portfolio in order to enhance system resilience. In addition to creating new decision theories in incentivizing players in the electricity market, one outcome will be a decision support platform for policymaking to enhance public-private enterprise participation in community resilience efforts. To integrate the research components into educational activities, this project will: (i) incorporate social innovation and entrepreneurship to reach students at all levels; (ii) create a hierarchical makerspace academy to provide high school and STEM students the knowledge to build empirical and analytical models of decision making by including project tasks in formal and informal learning processes; and (iii) integrate methods from economics, operations research, and biology with engineering knowledge. The multi-disciplinary approach will help broaden participation of underrepresented minorities in research and positively impact engineering education.This research is at the nexus of predictive analytics used to forecast electric power disruptions and robust stochastic optimization models used to determine investments into energy technology portfolios under sequential and multiple uncertainties in policy and technological performance. This project will integrate these approaches in a bio-inspired complex adaptive system framework to evaluate performance-oriented dynamic investments, and use scenario analysis to distill the thresholds of resilience-enhancing electricity technology portfolios. The PI will interpret the system healing process to be a dynamic function of infrastructural decay, operating status/environment, adaptation, redundancy, and the potential for assets decentralization to limit disaster propensity for damage propagation and downtime protraction. This framework will employ the multiple Taylor Series function with wide area measurement system data for system stability prediction within a modified IEEE bus test system. This project will evaluate the value of a resilient infrastructure system in the larger scheme of systems interdependence with the aid of Integrated Assessment Models such as Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models infused with mathematical representations of physical system degradation. If successful, this CAREER project will provide the first scientific test of the efficacy of the multi-disciplinary approach.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.