Climate Engineering Liability and Reliability: An Integrated Treatment (CELARIT)

鉴于气候工程（CE）潜在的灾难性副作用，国际责任制度的存在通常被认为是国际上接受其部署的先决条件。然而，出现了两个基本问题：第一，作为分配和分担可能损害的风险的一种手段的责任制度是否可取和可行；其次，如何处理气候效应的估计只能依靠数值气候模拟，而不能依靠经验数据的事实。虽然ce损害的责任问题近年来越来越受到关注，但这些问题尚未在文献中得到全面的解决。此外，还没有回答如何可能对实施行政长官影响的竞争模型的稳健性和可靠性作出判断，特别是当这些模型可能作为法庭诉讼的证据时。在这种背景下，CELARIT的核心目标是发展对国际责任问题以及模型可靠性和稳健性问题的综合处理。这种处理将建立在三个支柱上：(1)在前项目CEIBRAL下进行的气候建模、经济学、哲学和法律方面的主要学科研究的成果；(2)在CEIBRAL期间，这些观点的跨学科整合的产出；(3)气候和环境行政研究的最新进展，以及各组成学科的最新进展。这些支柱共同支持和传达了该项目的特定目标，即跨学科地解决在行政长官责任的背景下使用模型作为证据的问题。因此，本项目的工作将：(1)解决法院如何评估和比较竞争模型的问题，以及额外的稳健性和可靠性的代价是什么；(2)评估在何种情况下气候模式可被视为在行政长官责任审判中提供可接纳和充分的证据；(3)研究如何在计算危害的反事实（没有CE的世界，也许没有气候变化）无法观察到的情况下确定损害，但它本身是数值模型的产物。最后(4)，将在更广泛的背景下研究这个问题，分析模型如何在可靠性有限的情况下用于指导环保相关行动，以及科学的政策建议如何能够充分应对不确定性和无知。该项目使CEIBRAL的参与者重新团结起来。然而，CELARIT在cebrar之上迈出了重要的一步，因为它承担了跨学科综合治疗的方法论重新定位：它包括系统地调查模型不确定性为以对社会负责的方式管理CE实施提供的局限性和潜力。

In light of the potentially catastrophic side-effects of Climate Engineering (CE), the existence of an international liability regime is generally considered to be a prerequisite for its internationally accepted deployment. However, two fundamental questions arise: First, whether a liability regime as a means of allocating and sharing the risks of likely damages is desirable and feasible; and secondly, how to deal with the fact that estimates of the climate effects of CE could only rely on numerical climate modeling, but not on experiential data. Although the topic of liability for CE-induced damages has recently attracted increasing attention, these questions have not yet been addressed in a comprehensive manner in literature. Also, it has not yet been answered how it is possible to arrive at judgments on robustness and reliability of competing models of the impacts of CE implementation, in particular when these may serve as evidence in court proceedings. Against this background, the core objective of CELARIT is the development of an integrated treatment of international liability issues and problems of model reliability and robustness. This treatment will build on three pillars: (1) the outputs of the predominantly disciplinary research in climate modelling, economics, philosophy, and law carried out under the precursor project CEIBRAL; (2) the outputs of the interdisciplinary integration of these perspectives during CEIBRAL; and (3) the most recent developments in the state of the art in climate and CE research and in the constituent disciplines. Jointly, these pillars support and inform the particular objective of the project, namely to tackle, across disciplines, the problem of using models as evidence in the context of liability for CE. The work conduced in this project will thus: (1) address the question how competing models can be assessed and compared by a court, and at what cost additional robustness and reliability come; (2) assess under what conditions a climate model may be considered as providing admissible and sufficient evidence in a CE liability trial; (3) examine how to determine damage in a setting where the counterfactual for computing harm (a world without CE and, perhaps, without climate change) cannot be observed, but is itself a product of a numerical model. Finally (4), the problem will be looked at within a broader context by analyzing how models can be used for guiding CE-related action in spite of their limited reliability, and how scientific policy advice can adequately deal with uncertainty and ignorance. The project reunites the participants of CEIBRAL. However, CELARIT takes an important step above and beyond CEIBRAL in that it undertakes a methodological reorientation towards an integrated treatment across disciplines: It includes a systematic investigation of the limitations and potentials that model uncertainty offers for governing CE implementation in a societally responsible fashion.