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Developmental game theory and decision-making

发展博弈论与决策

基本信息

批准号：
1851915
负责人：
Isabelle Brocas
金额：
$ 52.3万
依托单位：
University of Southern California
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-08-15 至 2023-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851915&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Developmental game theory decision making

项目摘要

This project will advance the understanding of the development of strategic decision-making in children and adolescents by assessing the contribution of logical and strategic thinking to decision-making abilities. Strategic thinking is critical to make everyday decisions and such decisions often involve other players who have different motivations and perspectives. These differences must be understood at the time of decision to make logical and informed decisions. Research has shown that adults have innate abilities to coordinate on efficient market outcomes even with very limited knowledge. At the same time, they have limited abilities to anticipate what others may do and to strategize in a large variety of multi-person situations, such as bargaining. This suggests that some abilities develop while others do not. An important objective of the project is to study how children develop (or do not develop) these abilities and to better understand the reasons for irrational choices in adults. Also, the project will allow to better assess the limitations in the acquisition and transfer of cognitive skills to decision-making. This will help determine whether cognitive skills and rational behavior can be enhanced. Last, the study may help explore new curriculum development strategies and inform interventions around children and teenagers. Indeed, one essential role of education is to promote critical thinking. Education is thus expected to impact positively the way we make decisions. Our study will contribute to the design of an educational environment capable of promoting success beyond school-related attainment. The study will feature four sets of lab-in-the field experiments. School-age students from Pre-K to 12th grade will be recruited from public and private schools in the Los Angeles area. For comparison, adult controls will also be recruited. Each experiment will evaluate the performance of each participant on tasks designed to assess cognitive traits and on game theoretic paradigms that require those underlying cognitive traits. Four game theoretic paradigms in which adults comply differentially with equilibrium predictions will be studied. The first experiment will investigate how humans develop their innate ability to coordinate on efficient solutions in repeated relationships. The second experiment will explore strategic situations in which adults are largely heterogeneous in their ability to anticipate what others will do and to formulate a best response. The third experiment will explore the underlying causes that make mixed strategy behavior non-intuitive and difficult to implement. The last experiment will investigate the reasons why the ability to strategize does not develop naturally in the presence of informational asymmetries. The study will allow to identify behavioral biases that develop gradually. Tracking biases to their developmental causes is important to inform research in Economics and to develop theoretical models with better predictive power. At the same time, the study will offer clues that may be used to remedy such biases. The study will help assess whether limitations of strategic thinking abilities stem from an imperfect acquisition of cognitive skills, which may be remedied by exposing children to specific problems and teaching them how to think about them.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目将通过评估逻辑思维和战略思维对决策能力的贡献，促进对儿童和青少年战略决策发展的理解。战略思维对日常决策至关重要，这种决策往往涉及其他参与者，他们有不同的动机和观点。在作出决定时，必须了解这些差异，以便作出合乎逻辑和知情的决定。研究表明，即使在知识非常有限的情况下，成年人也具有协调有效市场结果的天生能力。与此同时，他们预测他人可能会做什么的能力有限，在各种各样的多人情况下制定战略的能力也有限，比如讨价还价。这表明，一些能力会发展，而另一些能力则不会。该项目的一个重要目标是研究儿童如何发展(或不发展)这些能力，并更好地理解成年人做出非理性选择的原因。此外，该项目还将允许更好地评估认知技能的获取和向决策转移方面的限制。这将有助于确定是否可以增强认知技能和理性行为。最后，这项研究可能有助于探索新的课程发展战略，并为围绕儿童和青少年的干预提供信息。事实上，教育的一个重要作用是促进批判性思维。因此，人们期望教育对我们的决策方式产生积极影响。我们的研究将有助于设计一个能够促进成功的教育环境，使其超越与学校相关的成就。这项研究将以四组现场实验室实验为特色。从学前班到12年级的学龄儿童将从洛杉矶地区的公立和私立学校招募。为了进行比较，也将招募成人控制组。每个实验都将评估每个参与者在评估认知特征的任务上的表现，以及在需要这些潜在认知特征的博弈论范式上的表现。四种博弈论范式将被研究，在这些范式中，成年人以不同的方式遵守均衡预测。第一个实验将研究人类如何在重复的关系中发展他们天生的协调有效解决方案的能力。第二个实验将探索战略情景，在这些情景中，成年人在预测他人将会做什么和制定最佳反应方面的能力在很大程度上是不同的。第三个实验将探索导致混合策略行为非直观性和难以实施的深层原因。最后一个实验将调查为什么在存在信息不对称的情况下制定战略的能力不会自然发展的原因。这项研究将使人们能够识别逐渐形成的行为偏见。追踪其发展原因的偏差对于经济学研究和开发具有更好预测能力的理论模型是重要的。与此同时，这项研究将提供可能被用来纠正这种偏见的线索。这项研究将有助于评估战略思维能力的局限性是否源于认知技能的不完美获得，这可以通过让儿童接触特定问题并教他们如何思考来补救。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。