Collaborative Research: P2C2--Elucidating the Drivers and Consequences of Changes in Atmospheric Rivers from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Present Day

本项目旨在研究大气河流（ARs）对平均气候状态和辐射强迫变化的响应。这将使用来自社区地球系统模型（CESM2）的一套新的古气候模拟来完成，目的是了解驱动过去、现在和未来ARs响应的过程，并评估其对区域水文气候和生态系统的影响。研究人员计划在CESM2上进行8项不同的实验，在这些实验中，冰盖、轨道结构、融水通量和二氧化碳浓度将在上一次冰川极大期以来独立变化。利用ar跟踪算法客观识别不同气候状态下的ar，量化ar变化的分布、频率、强度、季节特征及其对降水的影响。该项目有三个具体目标：1)开发用于气候变化研究的鲁棒AR跟踪算法；2)了解ar与气候系统强迫之间的关系；3)量化末次冰期-间冰期AR变化对区域水文气候的贡献。潜在的更广泛的影响包括更好地了解ar在气候系统中的作用。计划进行一项国际合作，以进行正式的大气河流追踪方法相互比较活动，并将产生的AR目录存档并公开提供。该项目支持培养1名研究生和1名博士后。此外，作为马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校正在进行的一个项目的一部分，将为地区高中教师组织一个专业发展研讨会。将编制一套以气候系统的物理学和气候科学的跨学科应用为中心的模块，并提供给讲习班的参加者。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to investigate the response of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to changes in the mean climate state and radiative forcing. This will be accomplished using a new set of paleoclimate simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the goal to understand the processes that drive past, present and future ARs responses, and evaluate their impact on regional hydroclimates and ecosystems. The researchers plan to conduct eight different experiments with the CESM2 in which ice sheets, orbital configurations, meltwater fluxes and carbon dioxide concentrations will be varied independently since the last glacial maximum. An ARs tracking algorithm will be implemented to objectively identify ARs across climate states and then used to quantify the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonal character of ARs changes and their impact on precipitation. The project is organized about three specific objectives: 1) develop a robust AR tracking algorithm for use in climate change studies; 2) understand the relationships between ARs and climate system forcings; and 3) quantify the contribution of AR changes to regional hydroclimate over the last glacial-interglacial transition. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the role of ARs within the climate system. An international collaboration is planned to conduct an official Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison activity with the resulting AR catalogues being archived and made publicly available. The project supports the training of a graduate student and a Postdoctoral scholar. In addition, a professional development workshop for regional high school teachers will be organized as part of an ongoing program at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. A set of modules centered on the physics of the climate system and the interdisciplinary applications of climate science will be developed and made available to the workshop participants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.