The Long-run Relationship Between Trade and the Growth of Cities

从历史上看，城市在贸易路线沿线的重要地点产生和发展，因此今天的许多主要城市都是天然海港，或者位于其地理位置使其成为明显的贸易中心的地方。相比之下，最近在城市之外建造新的现代海港的例子很多。该项目收集了一个新的、独特的数据库，涵盖了19世纪初以来世界各地海港城市的国际贸易、人口、工资和价格。然后，该项目考察了国际贸易对这些港口城市当地人口和收入增长的影响。该项目还考虑了这种影响是否因世界不同地区和时间而异。由于许多地方和地区政府将地方税收用于改善和维护港口基础设施，因此迫切需要了解处理主要贸易流量是否会促进港口当地经济的增长，从而为有效的公共政策提供信息。此外，该项目有助于了解北极地区最近的变化对该地区经济增长的影响，这些变化为海港和贸易路线创造了潜力。本研究将考察和描述过去两个世纪国际贸易活动与区域增长和福利之间的关系。分析不仅将确定这种关系的强度，还将确定空间或时间因素影响这种关系的程度。现有的数据集是国家一级的汇总数据，并没有收集到研究这一重要问题所需的基本数据。该项目从各种历史记录（如英国和法国殖民报告）中收集了大量关于人口、国际贸易、工资和城市价格的历史数据，涵盖了19世纪以来世界各地的大量城市。这些数据一般不能在网上以电子方式获得，将通过档案研究收集。为了检验国际贸易对港口城市增长的因果影响，该项目引入了一种新策略，该策略采用了bartik型转移-份额程序，该程序还将初始份额变量与港口城市间地理异质性的国际运输冲击的相互作用联系起来。这些新数据与识别策略相结合，可以探索港口和附近内陆城市的贸易活动与区域增长之间的因果关系，以及全球化对第一个全球化时代各类工人实际工资的影响。因此，该项目对与国际贸易、基础设施投资和经济增长有关的问题产生了更广泛的影响，这对世界最近的发展产生了影响，例如新北极地区潜在的贸易路线可能会如何影响区域增长。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Abstract Historically, cities arise and grow at important points along trade routes, and thus many of today's major cities are natural seaports or are located where their geography makes them obvious centers for trade. In contrast, there are many recent examples where new modern seaports are constructed outside of cities. This project collects a new and unique database on international trade, population, wages, and prices for ocean port cities across the world that spans back into the early 1800s. The project then examines the impact of international trade on the local population and income growth for these port cities. The project also considers if this effect varies for different areas of the world and over time. There is a critical need to understand whether the handling of major trade flows leads to improved growth of ports local economy to inform effective public policy, as many local and regional governments direct local tax dollars into improving and maintaining port infrastructure. Also, the project helps in understanding the implications of recent changes in the Arctic region that creates potentials for seaports and trade routes on the economic growth in this region. This research will examine and characterize the relationship between international trade activity and regional growth and welfare over the past two centuries. The analysis will determine not only the strength of this relationship, but the extent to which spatial or temporal factors influence this relationship. Existing datasets are at an aggregate national level and have not collected the essential data required to look at this important issue. This project undertakes a substantial collection of historical data on population, international trade, wages, and prices at the city level from a variety of historical records, such as the British and French colonial reports, covering a broad set of cities across the world back well into the 19thcentury. These data are generally not available electronically online and will be gathered through archival research. To examine the causal impact of international trade on port-city growth, the project introduces a new strategy that adapts a Bartik-type shift-share procedure that also instruments the initial share variable with interactions of shocks to international transport with geographic heterogeneity across port cities. This novel data combined with the identification strategy allow exploration of the causal relationship between trade activity and regional growth over time for both port and nearby inland cities, as well as the impact of globalization on real wages across worker types during the first era of globalization. The project, thus, has broader impacts on issues that relate to international trade, infrastructure investment and economic growth, which has implications for recent developments in the world such as how potential trade routes in the new Arctic may affect regional growth.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.