RAPID: Decision-Making Involving Risk in the Immediate Aftermath of a Natural Disaster

遭受自然灾害可能导致个人和家庭作出效率低下的决定，其中一些决定可能涉及风险。 负面冲击往往会导致行为的增加，从而导致可能长期存在的不良后果。 然而，自然灾害影响决策的机制尚不清楚。 本研究将采用实验方法研究自然灾害对自然灾害发生后家庭决策的影响。 具体而言，研究将调查以下内容：（一）灾害造成的人员和经济损失，（二）对医疗检测、服药等健康决策的影响，（三）个人选择的变化可能会加强或减少最初的影响，以及（四）家庭如何科普灾害。 该项目的发现可以揭示自然灾害的许多后果：抗击艾滋病毒/艾滋病或麻疹等流行病的计划中断。 了解自然灾害影响具有风险结果的决策的机制，将有助于决策者制定更有效的方法，帮助减少自然灾害的破坏性影响。本研究项目力求回答以下问题：（一）自然灾害如何影响灾后家庭的健康和经济成果？(ii)家庭如何在灾难发生后立即做出有关医疗保健的决定？(iii)个人偏好的变化如何调节这些影响（灾难会影响家庭风险还是时间偏好）？及（iv）住户采用甚么科普机制？ 研究人员将在该地区正在进行的项目中利用社区和个人层面的事先随机化，以确定自然灾害对这些结果的因果影响。 该研究项目的一个主要贡献是收集了灾难发生后家庭偏好和健康行为的短暂数据。 研究小组在灾区的存在使该小组能够收集适当的短暂数据。 该研究项目的结果将为研究灾难发生后的家庭行为提供重要的数据集。 该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Exposure to a natural disaster can lead individuals and families to make inefficient decisions, some of which may involve risk. Negative shocks often lead to increases in behaviors that results in bad outcomes that may persist into the long run. However, the mechanisms through which natural disasters affect decision making are not known. This research will use experimental methods to study the effects of a natural disaster on household decision making in the immediate aftermath of the natural disaster. Specifically, the research will investigate the following: (i) what are the human and economic losses due to the disaster, (ii) the effects on health decisions such as medical testing, taking medications, (iii) changes in individual choices that may reinforce or reduce the initial effects, and (iv) how household cope with the disaster. This project's findings can reveal many consequences of natural disasters: disruption of programs to combat epidemics such as HIV/AIDS or measles. Understanding the mechanisms through which natural disasters affect decisions with risky outcomes will help policy makers to craft more effective ways to help reduce the damaging effects of natural disasters. This research project seeks to answer the following questions: (i) how does a natural disaster affect the health and economic outcomes of households in the immediate aftermath? (ii) how do household make decisions about health care immediately after the disaster? (iii) how do changes in individual preferences mediate these effects (will the disaster affect household risk or time preference)? and (iv) what mechanisms do households adopted to cope with the disaster? The researchers will leverage prior randomization at the community and individual levels in an on-going project in the area to identify the causal effects of natural disaster on these outcomes. A major contribution of this research project is the collection of ephemeral data on household preferences and healthy behaviors in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. The presence of the research team in the disaster area allows the team to collect the appropriate ephemeral data. The results of this research project will provide important data sets to study household behavior in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. The results will also provide important inputs into policies to help victims of natural disasters in the US and around the world.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.