Evaluating Impact of Student Debt on Early Career Choices

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The U.S. scientific community and industry groups have observed that the United States is not producingsufficient numbers of skilled native workers to meet demand, especially in the physical sciences,computer science, and engineering fields that drive innovation. Merit-based aid, for example,scholarships and fellowships, reduces both the immediate cost to students of investing in highereducation, and students' longer-term risk of high cumulative student debt loads after graduation. Thisproject will evaluate both efficacy and consequences of merit awards for increasingretention of women and racial/ethnic minority students in STEM degree programs, and in the scientificworkforce after graduation. The project examines the extent of any observed effects of merit aidon underrepresented students' early career choices are specifically due to reducing students' risk of highercumulative debt. This research aims to inform policies and institutional strategies to retain U.S. studentsand graduates in science and engineering careers. In addition, because graduates in scientific andtechnical fields also have greater expected lifetime earnings, encouraging broader participation in thesefields by historically underrepresented racial/ethnic minorities, first-generation college students, and othereconomically-disadvantaged individuals may help to address persistent and growing socioeconomicinequality.The project will employ linear and nonlinear econometric estimation for causal inference, leveraging twoexisting data sources. First, using newly-developed institutional administrative data from a largepublic Minority-Serving Institution with student-level observations matched to publicly availablestatistical data, the project will assess whether income-contingent merit aid in particular, the U.S.Department of Education SMART grants, or prior community college or associate's degree transfercredit affected STEM degree completion among observably STEM-interested undergraduate students.Then, using longitudinal survey data under restricted-use license from the NSF National Center forScience and Engineering Statistics, the project will estimate the influence of different higher educationfunding mechanisms on students' cumulative debt load at graduation, and further whether highercumulative student debt deters recent graduates in STEM fields from pursuing science and engineeringoccupations.