Preventing Civil War through International Action

大量文献表明，冲突管理活动--如调解和维持和平--有助于减少暴力和解决长期内战。参与这些活动的许多行为者--包括联合国、区域组织、非政府组织和国家政府--也表示致力于从一开始就努力防止暴力的发生。关于冲突预防是否、如何以及在什么情况下可以发挥作用的学术研究要少得多。该项目首次系统地研究了预防冲突行动在广泛的国家内部争端中的作用。该项目的发现将有助于理解为什么会发生内战，以及国际行为者是否以及如何努力防止内战的发生。这项研究的结果将有助于向试图了解这些动态的学者和对确定如何以及何时努力防止暴力冲突感兴趣的政策制定者提供信息。该项目确定国际行为者是否、如何以及在什么情况下能够在目前不是暴力的但有可能升级的争端中防止内战。该项目借鉴了关于国家与持不同政见者互动的文献，提出了一个理论框架，考察了这两个行为者之间的战略互动，以及在大规模动员或内战爆发之前，国际行为者如何影响这种互动。这一框架侧重于预防冲突的两种方式：说服持不同政见者和国家在这些争端中使用非暴力手段，以及帮助持不同政见者和平解决这些争端。这项研究将产生第一个关于主要是非暴力但可能升级为内战的争端的冲突预防努力的全球数据集。这些数据将被用来检验理论论证的影响，并检查国际行动是否可以降低内战的可能性，如果是的话，哪些行动在各种情况下最有效。统计方法将使用配对方法来比较在升级为内战的可能性方面一般相似的争端，并审查这些争端中的行动的影响。这些定量测试将辅以定性分析，旨在更直接地检查预防行动对持不同政见者和国家决策的潜在机制和影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

A large literature suggests that conflict management activities—such as mediation and peacekeeping — contribute to reductions in violence and the resolution of long-running civil wars. Many of the same actors that engage in these activities — including the United Nations, regional organizations, non-governmental organizations, and national governments — also express a commitment to working to prevent violence from occurring in the first place. There is much less academic research on whether, how, and in what contexts conflict prevention can work. This project presents the first systematic study of the effect of conflict prevention actions in a wide range of intrastate disputes. The project’s findings will contribute to understanding of why civil wars happen and whether and how international actors can work to prevent them from occurring. The results of the study will both help to inform scholars seeking to understand these dynamics and policymakers interested in determining how and when to work to prevent violent conflicts. This project identifies whether, how, and in what contexts international actors can prevent civil war in disputes that are not currently violent, but have the potential for escalation. Drawing on literature on state-dissident interactions, the project presents a theoretical framework examining the strategic interaction between these two actors and how international actors can influence this interaction, before mass mobilization or civil war breaks out. This framework focuses on two ways that conflict prevention can work: by convincing dissidents and states to use nonviolent means in these disputes, and by helping dissidents resolve these disputes peacefully. This research will produce the first global dataset on conflict prevention efforts for disputes that are primarily nonviolent but can escalate to civil war. These data will be used to test implications of the theoretical argument and to examine whether international action can lead to a reduced likelihood of civil war, and if so, which actions are most effective in various contexts. The statistical approach will use matching methods to compare disputes that are generally similar in the likelihood of escalation to civil war and to examine the effect of actions in these disputes. These quantitative tests will be supplemented with qualitative analysis designed to more directly examine the underlying mechanisms and effects of preventive actions on dissident and state decision-making.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.