Supporting Sustainable Evolution of Electrical Energy Systems via Closed-Loop Consumer Behavior and Market System Modeling

通过闭环消费者行为和市场系统建模支持电能系统的可持续发展

• 批准号: 1953774
• 负责人: Ashley Lytle
• 金额: $ 41万
• 依托单位: Stevens Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-15 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1953774&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Supporting; Sustainable; Evolution; Electrical; Energy

Energy and power systems generate many societal benefits, such as reliable and affordable electricity, jobs, and economic growth, but they also produce harmful emissions and waste. Two approaches to reducing the environmental impacts of the electricity grid are (1) to promote a greater penetration of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, and (2) to reduce the total amount of electric energy consumption through behavioral changes. However, such large-scale changes raise important questions and concerns about secondary impacts on the workforce, energy costs, and grid reliability. Thus, the success of an electricity grid transformation will be influenced by the closed-loop decision-making of various stakeholders, including government regulators, power companies, and consumers. Viewing this as a multi-agent system, this proposal seeks to generate new knowledge on stakeholder behavior and explore novel approaches for electricity system modeling. An improved system model that incorporates a deep understanding of consumer behavior can support producer and policy decision-making regarding the portfolio of power sources, messages directed toward consumers, availability of incentives, renewable energy program offerings, and other policy alternatives. Through more informed producer and policy decisions, the U.S. electricity sector will be able to grow in a more secure, resilient, and sustainable manner. In addition, this proposal will advance interdisciplinary education through cross-disciplinary teaching, student research opportunities, and conference workshops to promote collaborative research, thereby contributing to more well-rounded graduates for the future U.S. workforce. The proposed research involves three thrusts: (1) consumer behavior experiments, (2) multi-agent market system modeling, and (3) integrated consumer and market simulation testing for usability and value to decision-making and trade-off analysis. In Thrust 1, consumer behavior experiments will examine electricity choices, investigating how social norms and incentives impact consumer energy use, the likelihood of purchasing more efficient products, and the likelihood of opting into renewable energy credit programs. This will lead to an improved fundamental understanding of consumer attitudes and behaviors related to electricity choices. These experimental results from Thrust 1 will inform the creation of an agent-based model of an electricity system in Thrust 2, which will be used to examine how different assumptions, model architectures, and policy scenarios affect the system-level outcomes. This will provide evidence on the suitability of complex systems modeling approaches and structures for simulating energy market systems, as well as baseline policy and intervention analysis results. Finally, experimental vignettes conducted with energy industry and policy decision-makers in Thrust 3 will examine the simulation's usability, perceived value, and key findings, serving to both validate the system model and provide directions for future work.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

能源和电力系统产生了许多社会效益，如可靠和负担得起的电力、就业和经济增长，但它们也产生有害的排放和废物。减少电网对环境影响的两种方法是(1)促进太阳能和风能等可再生能源的更大普及，(2)通过改变行为来减少电能消耗总量。然而，如此大规模的变化引发了对劳动力、能源成本和电网可靠性的二次影响的重要问题和担忧。因此，电网改造的成功将受到包括政府监管机构、电力公司和消费者在内的各种利益相关者的闭环决策的影响。将这视为一个多主体系统，该提案试图产生关于利益相关者行为的新知识，并探索电力系统建模的新方法。包含对消费者行为的深入理解的改进的系统模型可以支持生产者和关于电源组合、针对消费者的消息、激励措施的可用性、可再生能源计划产品和其他政策替代方案的政策决策。通过更知情的生产商和政策决策，美国电力部门将能够以更安全、更具弹性和更可持续的方式增长。此外，这项提议将通过跨学科教学、学生研究机会和会议研讨会来促进跨学科教育，以促进合作研究，从而为未来的美国劳动力培养更全面的毕业生。提出的研究包括三个方面：(1)消费者行为实验，(2)多智能体市场系统建模，(3)从可用性和价值到决策和权衡分析的消费者和市场综合模拟测试。在推力1中，消费者行为实验将检查电力选择，调查社会规范和激励措施如何影响消费者的能源使用，购买更高效产品的可能性，以及选择参与可再生能源信贷计划的可能性。这将导致对消费者与电力选择相关的态度和行为的基本理解。推力1的这些实验结果将为推力2中电力系统的基于代理的模型的创建提供信息，该模型将用于检查不同的假设、模型架构和政策情景如何影响系统级的结果。这将为复杂系统建模方法和结构是否适用于模拟能源市场系统以及基线政策和干预分析结果提供证据。最后，在推力3中与能源行业和政策决策者进行的实验小插曲将检查模拟的可用性、感知价值和关键发现，有助于验证系统模型并为未来的工作提供方向。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

An experimental study of consumer attitudes and intentions in electricity markets

• DOI: 10.1016/j.clrc.2023.100116
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Cleaner and Responsible Consumption
• 作者: Gina Dello Russo;Ashley Lytle;Steven Hoffenson;Lei Wu;Caitlin O. Mahoney

An Experimental Study of the Effect of Monetary Incentives and Fees on Consumer Energy Behavioral Intentions

货币激励和收费对消费者能源行为意向影响的实验研究

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: The Proceedings of the 2023 Conference on System Engineering Research - System Engineering Towards a Smart and Sustainable
• 作者: Dello Rosso, G.;Lytle, A.;Hoffenson, S.;Wu, L.
• 通讯作者: Wu, L.

Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer and Producer Behavior in Sustainable Energy Markets,

可持续能源市场中消费者和生产者行为的基于代理的建模，

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting
• 作者: Dello Russo, G.;Hoffenson, S.;Lytle, A.;Wu, L.
• 通讯作者: Wu, L.