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Sustainable freight transport in urban areasImpact assessment by system dynamics based freight transport models

城市地区可持续货运基于系统动力学的货运模型的影响评估

基本信息

批准号：
241704476
负责人：
Professor Dr.-Ing. Uwe Clausen
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institut für Transportlogistik (ITL)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2013-12-31 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/241704476?language=en
关键词：
Sustainable freight transport urban areasImpact

项目摘要

The overarching objective of the research project is to develop a methodology to represent, assess and simulate urban freight transport. This methodology enables not only to perform temporarily punctual analyses, but rather long-term forecasts. So far no generally valid transport policy instrument is available to public authorities to efficiently control and plan freight transport. Therefore, measurements will be provided in this field and most importantly their future sustainability will be evaluated by the methodology.The research project aims at linking system dynamics with a macroscopic aggregate freight transport model on the one hand and on the other hand with a microscopic disaggregate freight transport model. The advantage of this approach is to link the forecast capability of the System Dynamics method with the detail resolution of transport simulation. In the complete system dynamics model the subsystems transport policy, logistics, production and society or consumer, which relate to one another in the whole system, will be analyses in detail. The dependencies and interrelationships between the individual subsystems will be characterized by selected parameters within the system dynamics model. Sustainable concepts will be summarized in a catalogue of measures. These transport policy measures will be tested und simulated in different scenarios. By linking up the system dynamics model with the freight transport models, the effect of measures, which were analyzed previously over the course of time, will be simulated on an infrastructural level with the freight transport models. In the process, the results of system dynamics will be transferred to the transport demand within the traffic services. Both sub-models exchange data, which are required for the next simulation step of the other model. This gives rise to an iterative optimizing process of the urban freight transport.Target of the optimization is a stable system, which establishes a sustainable compromise between traffic service and transport demand on the one hand and on the other hand between ecological, social and economic, interests.

该研究项目的总体目标是开发一种方法来表示，评估和模拟城市货运。这种方法不仅可以进行临时的准时分析，而且可以进行长期预测。到目前为止，公共当局还没有普遍有效的运输政策工具来有效地控制和规划货运。因此，将在这一领域提供衡量标准，最重要的是，将通过该方法评估其未来的可持续性。本研究项目的目的是将系统动力学与宏观的总货物运输模型相结合，另一方面与微观的非总货物运输模型相结合。这种方法的优点是将系统动力学方法的预测能力与运输模拟的细节分辨率联系起来。在完整的系统动力学模型中，将对整个系统中相互关联的运输政策、物流、生产和社会或消费者等子系统进行详细分析。各个子系统之间的依赖关系和相互关系将通过系统动态模型中的选定参数来表征。可持续的概念将归纳在一系列措施中。这些运输政策措施将在不同的情况下进行测试和模拟。通过将系统动力学模型与货物运输模型连接起来，将在基础设施一级用货物运输模型模拟以前分析的措施的效果。在此过程中，系统动力学的结果将转化为交通服务内的运输需求。两个子模型交换数据，这是另一个模型的下一个模拟步骤所需的。这就产生了一个迭代的城市货运优化过程，其目标是一个稳定的系统，在交通服务和运输需求之间以及生态、社会和经济利益之间建立一个可持续的折衷。