Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention Designed to Minimize Negative Impacts

平流层气溶胶气候干预旨在最大限度地减少负面影响

• 批准号: 2017113
• 负责人: Alan Robock
• 金额: $ 71.47万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2017113&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Stratospheric; Aerosol; Climate; Intervention; Designed

Increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) can strongly affect the climate system and potentially our future survival. The obvious, but difficult, solution lies in drastically curbing GHG emissions. Failing that, a way to offset the expected global warming induced by GHGs may be geoengineering. A strategy in geoengineering involves the "injection" of sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Mimicking what naturally occurs during volcanic eruptions, this strategy can mitigate global warming. However, it may also produce unintended consequences like reduced globally averaged precipitation and enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation and ozone concentration near the surface. These consequences can impact agriculture, altering food production. This project aims to understand the uncertainties of sulphate aerosol injection and evaluate its impacts on agriculture. Understanding these impacts is essential if geoengineering is indeed needed. The principal investigators (PIs) of this project will conduct numerical experiments of injecting aerosols into the stratosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM2). The PIs will then explore ways to introduce the injection to reduce global warming while minimizing impacts on agriculture that result from stratospheric ozone depletion due to sulfate aerosols. CESM2 includes complete treatment of diffuse radiation, aerosols, and atmospheric chemistry, as well as built in simulations of crop production. The PIs will update the crop model to include sensitivity to UV and to better represent ozone damage, which will allow more accurate representation of crop impacts. The work will support the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

温室气体（GHG）的增加会严重影响气候系统，并可能影响我们未来的生存。明显但困难的解决方案在于大幅减少温室气体排放。如果做不到这一点，抵消温室气体引起的预期全球变暖的一种方法可能是地球工程。地球工程的一个策略是将硫酸盐气溶胶“注入”平流层以反射阳光。模仿火山爆发时自然发生的情况，这种策略可以缓解全球变暖。然而，它也可能产生意想不到的后果，如全球平均降水量减少，紫外线辐射和地表附近臭氧浓度增加。这些后果可能影响农业，改变粮食生产。该项目旨在了解硫酸盐气溶胶喷射的不确定性，并评估其对农业的影响。如果确实需要地球工程，了解这些影响至关重要。该项目的主要研究人员将使用NCAR社区地球系统模式（CESM 2）的全大气社区气候模式进行将气溶胶注入平流层的数值实验。然后，PI将探索引入注射的方法，以减少全球变暖，同时最大限度地减少硫酸盐气溶胶导致的平流层臭氧消耗对农业的影响。CESM 2包括对漫射辐射、气溶胶和大气化学的完整处理，以及内置的作物生产模拟。PI将更新作物模型，以包括对紫外线的敏感性，并更好地表示臭氧损害，这将使作物影响的表示更加准确。这项工作将支持地球工程模型相互比较项目（GeoMIP），作为耦合模型相互比较项目6（CMIP 6）的一部分。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Optimal climate intervention scenarios for crop production vary by nation

作物生产的最佳气候干预情景因国家而异

• DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00853-3
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Food
• 影响因子: 23.2
• 作者: Clark, Brendan;Xia, Lili;Robock, Alan;Tilmes, Simone;Richter, Jadwiga H.;Visioni, Daniele;Rabin, Sam S.
• 通讯作者: Rabin, Sam S.

The road toward process-level understanding of solar geoengineering through a multi-model intercomparison

通过多模型比对过程级理解太阳能地球工程之路

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0209.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Kravitz, Ben;Robock, Alan;MacMartin, Douglas G.
• 通讯作者: MacMartin, Douglas G.

Improving Models for Solar Climate Intervention Research

改进太阳气候干预研究模型

• DOI: 10.1029/2021eo156087
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Eos
• 作者: Eastham, Sebastian;Doherty, Sarah;Keith, David;Richter, Jadwiga;Xia, Lili
• 通讯作者: Xia, Lili

Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-05
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: D. Visioni;B. Kravitz;A. Robock;S. Tilmes;J. Haywood;O. Boucher;M. Lawrence;P. Irvine;U. Niemeier;L. Xia;G. Chiodo;C. Lennard;S. Watanabe;J. Moore;H. Muri

Process-Level Experiments and Policy-Relevant Scenarios in Future GeoMIP Iterations

未来 GeoMIP 迭代中的流程级实验和政策相关场景

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0281.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Visioni, Daniele;Robock, Alan;Duffey, Alistair;Quaglia, Ilaria
• 通讯作者: Quaglia, Ilaria