NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过解决以下NNA重点领域的社会系统、自然环境和建筑环境之间的相互作用，实现了这一目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。很少有变化像北极现在发生的变化那样戏剧性和复杂。气候和环境、国际条约和法规、国家安全和领土要求都在迅速变化。与此同时，北极社区和土著居民正在寻求在不断变化的全球经济中找到自己的位置。这种变化和愿望的融合引发了一些问题：需要什么样的基础设施，应该建在哪里，以及这将如何影响北极的人民和环境。该项目结合使用观测、卫星、地图和模型来确定哪些地方可能适合进行新的开发。这些类型的数据和分析以前没有被结合起来进行这样的评估。然后与社区、应急管理人员、环境科学家、工业代表、地方政府和土著群体成员一起探索这些地点。通过环境科学、现实工程、金融分析和文化关注的结合，该项目正在记录未来可能的发展，并了解它们对北极环境和人民的影响。随着北极环境变化的加剧，全球市场、区域地缘政治和社区愿望的变化正在激发人们对发展或加强航运、资源开采、旅游和渔业等新兴产业的新机遇的愿景。与此同时，北极社区和土著人民正在明确表达他们对未来的期望。这个项目探讨了从现在到2050年，这些汇聚的压力将如何影响北极的发展。该项目采用了一种新颖的方法，通过其不同学科的融合，如下所示。目前正在利用自然资源分布、国家和公司一级的抱负以及社区的愿望确定可行的发展地点。高分辨率气候情景、观测和卫星数据为获取和安全要求提供了环境背景。财政和环境评估、法规和条约提供了第三层评估。然后，由学术、土著和执业专家组成的独立国际参考小组以迭代的方式对综合产品进行审查。通过这一过程，该项目正在制定一项评估，确定北极发展面临的地球物理和社会经济压力，以及它们对当地社区、环境、全球商品链和国际关系的潜在连锁影响。该评估旨在为参与基于社区的研究提供知识资源，并支持社区、政府、企业和行业寻求在新北极航行。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems, natural environment, and built environment in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Few transformations are as dramatic or as complex as those occurring now in the Arctic. There are rapid changes in climate and the environment, in international treaties and regulations, in national security, and claims for territory. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples are looking to find their place in a changing global economy. This convergence of changes and aspirations is leading to questions about what kinds of infrastructure are needed, where it should be located, and how this may impact Arctic people and environment. This project is using a combination of observations, satellites, maps, and models to identify where useful and viable locations for new development might be located. These kinds of data and analysis have not been combined before to make such an assessment. These locations are then explored with communities, emergency managers, environmental scientists, industry representatives, local governments, and members of Indigenous groups. Through this merging of environmental sciences, real-world engineering, financial analyses, and cultural concerns, the project is documenting likely future developments and understand their impacts on the Arctic environment and its people.Alongside amplified Arctic environmental change, changes in global markets, regional geopolitics, and community aspirations are motivating visions of new opportunities to develop or enhance new industries in shipping, resource extraction, tourism, and fisheries. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous peoples are making clear their aspirations for the future. This project asks how these converging pressures will shape Arctic development between now and 2050. The project is using an approach that is novel through its convergence of diverse disciplines, as follows. Plausible locations for development are being identified using natural resource distributions, national- and company-level ambitions, and community aspirations. High-resolution climate scenarios, observations, and satellite data are providing the environmental context for access and safety requirements. Financial and environmental assessments, regulations, and treaties provide a third layer of evaluation. The integrated product is then interrogated in an iterative manner with an independent International Reference Group of academic, Indigenous and practitioner experts. Through this process, the project is developing an assessment identifying convergent geophysical and socioeconomic pressures on Arctic development, and their potential cascading impacts on local communities, the environment, global commodity chains, and international relations. This assessment seeks to provide a knowledge resource for engagements in grounded community-based research as well as supporting communities, governments, businesses and industries seeking to navigate the New Arctic.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.