Larval orientation, dispersal and connectivity in a brachyuran crab under ocean acidification and elevated temperature

该奖项的全部或部分资金来自《2021年美国救援计划法案》(公法117-2)。石蟹渔业在佛罗里达州是一个价值数百万美元的商业产业，考虑到预测的气候变化和极端天气事件的预测增加，这可能是不可持续的。PH降低(海洋酸化)和温度升高会对石蟹幼体的游泳行为和生存产生负面影响。这些情况预计将在佛罗里达西部海岸变得更加常见和广泛，并可能影响定居和补充未捕捞和已捕捞种群的幼虫的供应。幼虫扩散的变化可能会导致招募失败；然而，这种结果的程度目前尚不清楚。这项研究的目标是开发模型，预测未来气候情景下佛罗里达州石蟹的数量和分布。实验室实验正在量化温度和pH值如何影响幼虫的存活和行为。实验室研究的结果正在与洋流和化学信息结合在一起，形成生物物理模型。该模型通过将物理和化学环境的预测与气候诱导的幼虫行为变化相结合，预测了气候变化对石蟹种群的影响。更广泛的影响包括与石蟹和其他沿海甲壳类渔业的可持续管理相关、本科生和研究生的培训机会以及教育宣传。课程开发正在与TITLE-1学校合作进行，高中生正在制作短纪录片，准备进入佛罗里达南部学院的海洋科学电影节。在许多沿海栖息地，海洋酸化(OA)相对于世纪末的预测正在加速发生，主要是由于局部湿地退化、径流增加和富营养化，所有这些都放大了海岸PH值的变异性。预测未来海洋物种持久性和沿海渔业可持续性的能力取决于对酸化和气温升高的综合影响如何影响种群连通性和招募的了解。即使浮游幼虫生存、行为或扩散的微小变化也可能导致种群的大规模变化；然而，预测这些变化需要在物理和化学环境如何变化的背景下理解生物体的生物学。当暴露在与本世纪末预期类似的pH降低和温度升高的条件下时，一些幼虫不仅死亡率增加，而且它们的游泳行为也发生了变化，这反过来又改变了它们在沿海海洋中的扩散。这项研究正在量化OA和高温对短臂甲壳类动物石蟹的扩散和连通性的综合影响。有控制的实验室研究正在测量pH和温度变化对幼虫垂直游泳行为、发育和存活的影响。实验室研究的结果正在与高分辨率、空间和时间上真实的水动力学和碳酸盐化学预测相结合，在一个耦合的生物物理模型中预测对幼虫扩散的修改及其在不同环境条件下对种群连通性和持久性的影响。这项研究通过量化扩散模式和连通性、潜在的种群碎片化以及在当前和未来气候情景下的总体招募，为幼虫行为如何影响甲壳类集合种群的弹性提供了新的见解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The stone crab fishery is a multimillion-dollar commercial industry in Florida, which may not be sustainable given forecasted climate change and the predicted increases in extreme weather events. Stone crab larval swimming behavior and survivorship are negatively affected by reduced pH (ocean acidification) and elevated temperatures. These conditions are expected to become more common and widespread along the western Florida coast and may impact the supply of larvae that settle into and replenish both unfished and fished populations. Changes in larval dispersal could lead to recruitment failure; however, the extent of such an outcome is currently unknown. The goal of this study is to develop models that forecast the abundance and distribution of Florida’s stone crabs under future climate scenarios. Laboratory experiments are quantifying how temperature and pH affect larval survivorship and behavior. Results from the laboratory studies are being integrated with information on ocean currents and chemistry into a biophysical model. This model predicts the effects of climate change on the stone crab population by combining projections of the physical and chemical environment with climate-induced changes to larval behavior. The broader impacts include relevance to sustainable management of the stone crab and other coastal crustacean fisheries, training opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, and educational outreach. Curriculum development is occurring in partnership with Title-1 schools, and high-school students are developing short documentaries to be entered into a marine science film festival at Florida Southern College.In many coastal habitats, ocean acidification (OA) is occurring at an accelerated rate relative to end-of-century projections, largely due to localized wetland degradation, increased runoff, and eutrophication, all of which amplify variability in coastal pH. The ability to project future persistence of marine species and the sustainability of coastal fisheries depends on understanding how the combined effects of acidification and elevated temperature impact population connectivity and recruitment. Even small changes in planktonic larval survivorship, behaviors, or dispersal can lead to large population changes; however, predicting these changes requires understanding the biology of the organisms within the context of how the physical and chemical environment is changing. When exposed to reduced pH and elevated temperature conditions similar to those expected at the end of the century, some larvae not only experience increases in mortality, but they also change their swimming behavior, which in turn alters their dispersal in the coastal ocean. This study is quantifying the combined impacts of OA and elevated temperature on the dispersal and connectivity of a brachyuran crustacean, the stone crab. Controlled laboratory studies are measuring the effects of changes in pH and temperature on larval vertical swimming behavior, development, and survivorship. The results from the laboratory studies are being integrated with high-resolution spatially and temporally realistic hydrodynamic and carbonate chemistry projections in a coupled biophysical model to predict modifications to larval dispersal and their impact on population connectivity and persistence under different environmental conditions. This study is providing new insights into how larval behaviors affect the resilience of a crustacean metapopulation by quantifying dispersal patterns and connectivity, potential population fragmentation, and overall recruitment under current and future climate scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.