Health effects of decarbonization (HEALED): Understanding key determinants for health co-benefits and co-harms

脱碳对健康的影响 (HEALED)：了解健康协同效益和协同危害的关键决定因素

• 批准号: 2125293
• 负责人: Wei Peng
• 金额: $ 39.95万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2125293&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Health; effects; decarbonization; HEALED; Understanding

Tangible human health co-benefits can motivate stronger support for climate policy. For example, decarbonizing the energy system can produce sizable health co-benefits by reducing co-emitted air pollutants. However, assessing near-term decarbonization strategies with health considerations faces two key analytical challenges: (i) unintended health co-harms from some carbon mitigation strategies; for instance, large-scale bioenergy production can drive up food prices, which leads to nutrition-related health co-harms, and (ii) deep uncertainties about the future, such as socioeconomic patterns, technology costs, and market factors. The objectives of this project are: (i) to improve the quantitative understanding of key factors and processes that determine the magnitude and distribution of health outcomes from decarbonization, and (ii) to identify features of decarbonization strategies that are most likely to yield robust net health benefits given deep future uncertainties.The investigators hypothesize that while health co-benefits and co-harms are both affected by local technology choices (e.g., electricity generation technologies and vehicle types) and socioeconomic factors (e.g., income growth and population aging), the health co-harms are further determined by complex interactions across regions and sectors, such as inter-regional trade of electricity, biofuel, and food. With a focus on the United States, the investigators will test the hypothesis by: (i) developing an integrated energy-food-health modeling framework, by improving the representation of health drivers in a state-level integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) and connecting it with a fine- resolution health impact assessment module, (ii) constructing a large-scale ensemble of decarbonization scenarios to represent a wide range of future uncertainties in socioeconomic patterns, energy technology costs, and food/energy market setups, and (iii) identifying the key factors and processes that determine health outcomes at the county, state, and national levels. By combining knowledge from energy system modeling, health impact assessment, and decision analysis, this convergent research targets improving understanding of the non-linear interactions between low-carbon energy strategies and human health, as well as the role of the market and natural systems on which these interactions depend. Thus, this project seeks to advance quantitative understanding of the complex systems governing interconnected societal challenges on energy, health, and climate. Through a convergence of various disciplines, it seeks to provide new insights on key interacting dynamics that determine health outcomes from decarbonization. Further, by leveraging modern computational capabilities to analyze a large scenario ensemble, a data-driven approach is intended to enable quantification of the relative importance of various socioeconomic, technological, and market uncertainties in determining the health co-benefits or co-harms. The project will produce open-source model code and teaching materials for research and educational purposes. It will also train undergraduate and doctoral students in a highly interdisciplinary environment. Findings are intended to guide practitioners to improve their decisions to better navigate the climate-health nexus.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

有形的人类健康共同效益可促使人们更有力地支持气候政策。例如，通过减少共同排放的空气污染物，使能源系统脱碳可以产生相当大的健康协同效益。然而，评估考虑健康因素的近期脱碳战略面临两个关键的分析挑战：(i)某些碳缓解战略造成的意外健康危害；例如，大规模生物能源生产可能推高粮食价格，从而导致与营养有关的健康共害，以及（二）对未来的深刻不确定性，如社会经济模式、技术成本和市场因素。该项目的目标是：（一）提高对决定脱碳健康结果的规模和分布的关键因素和过程的定量理解，以及（二）确定在未来存在严重不确定性的情况下最有可能产生强劲净健康效益的脱碳战略的特征。研究人员假设，虽然健康共同利益和共同危害都受到当地技术选择（如发电技术和车辆类型）和社会经济因素（如收入增长和人口老龄化）的影响，但健康共同危害进一步受到区域和部门之间复杂的相互作用的影响，如电力、生物燃料和食品的区域间贸易。调查人员将以美国为重点，通过以下方式检验这一假设：(i)通过改进州一级综合评估模型（GCAM-USA）中健康驱动因素的代表性并将其与精细分辨率健康影响评估模块连接起来，开发能源-食品-健康综合建模框架；（ii）构建大规模脱碳情景集合，以代表社会经济模式、能源技术成本和食品/能源市场设置方面的广泛未来不确定性；（三）确定决定县、州和国家各级卫生结果的关键因素和过程。通过结合能源系统建模、健康影响评估和决策分析的知识，这一融合研究旨在提高对低碳能源战略与人类健康之间非线性相互作用的理解，以及这些相互作用所依赖的市场和自然系统的作用。因此，该项目旨在促进对能源、健康和气候等相互关联的社会挑战的复杂系统的定量理解。通过各种学科的融合，它寻求提供关于决定脱碳健康结果的关键相互作用动力学的新见解。此外，通过利用现代计算能力来分析大型情景集合，数据驱动的方法旨在量化各种社会经济、技术和市场不确定性在确定健康共同利益或共同危害方面的相对重要性。该项目将生产用于研究和教育目的的开源模型代码和教材。它还将在一个高度跨学科的环境中培养本科生和博士生。研究结果旨在指导从业者改进他们的决策，以更好地驾驭气候-健康关系。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Equity implications of electric vehicles: A systematic review on the spatial distribution of emissions, air pollution and health impacts

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acc87c
• 发表时间: 2023-03
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Anjali Sharma;Jinyu Shiwang;Anna M. Y. Lee;W. Peng

Integrating air quality and health considerations into power sector decarbonization strategies

将空气质量和健康考虑纳入电力行业脱碳战略

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8361
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Peng, Wei;Ou, Yang
• 通讯作者: Ou, Yang

Effects of global climate mitigation on regional air quality and health

• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01133-5
• 发表时间: 2023-05
• 期刊: Nature Sustainability
• 影响因子: 27.6
• 作者: Xinyuan Huang;Vivek Srikrishnan;J. Lamontagne;K. Keller;W. Peng