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Collaborative Research: Improving Our Understanding of Supercells from Convection Initiation to Tornadogenesis via Innovative Observations, Simulations, and Analysis Techniques

合作研究：通过创新的观测、模拟和分析技术提高我们对超级单体从对流引发到龙卷风发生的理解

基本信息

批准号：
2150792
负责人：
Paul Markowski
金额：
$ 111.4万
依托单位：
Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-04-01 至 2025-03-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2150792&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Improving Our Understanding

项目摘要

Decades of study of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes have resulted in better forecasts, better warnings, and increased public safety. However, despite this progress, there are still fundamental questions about tornado formation and the initiation of storms in environments that are conducive for tornadoes. This project will use new observations and new analysis techniques to uncover answers about the origin of tornado rotation and whether surface friction is an important factor, and how wind changes with altitude affect the initial development of thunderstorms. The results of the research may provide forecasters with more clues to why some storms form tornadoes while others do not within the same environment. The researchers also plan to contribute to public understanding of science through various outreach mechanisms, and will train multiple graduate students.This project focuses on a range of questions related to supercell thunderstorms, from initiation to tornado formation. The tornado-related research is guided by three core questions: 1) How important is baroclinically generated vorticity to the development of tornadoes, 2) Is the underlying surface a critical vorticity source for tornadoes, and 3) Why do supercell storms in similar environments often behave so differently? To address these questions, the research team will interrogate a number of well-observed tornadic storms from the VORTEX-II and TORUS field campaigns. Diabatic Lagrangian analysis (DLA) techniques will be conducted on multi-Doppler radar data and combined with swarm-sonde thermodynamic observations to create 4D thermodynamic and velocity fields, which will then be used in material circuit analyses to demonstrate the baroclinic origins of low-level circulation. Additionally, the material circuit analyses will be used on an existing 25-member ensemble of 75-m resolution numerical model simulations. New simulations will be conducted with a more generalized non-equilibrium lower boundary condition, using the two-layer model concept from the engineering community to address the frictional component of the project. New modeling simulations will also be conducted to address uncertainties related to convective initiation in shear and environmental controls on convective modes. The research team plans to target the following questions for the convective initiation (CI) work: 1) What are the variety of ways that vertical wind shear inhibits or facilitates CI, 2) How does their relative importance depend on the altitude and depth of the shear, and on the characteristics of the airmass boundary involved in CI, and 3) To what extent do the characteristics of an airmass boundary, such as its horizontal temperature gradient, depth, and forward speed relative to the environmental winds above the boundary, influence the organization of convective storms?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

几十年来对超级单体雷暴和龙卷风的研究已经带来了更好的预报和预警，并提高了公共安全。然而，尽管取得了这些进展，关于龙卷风的形成和有利于龙卷风形成的环境中风暴的形成仍然存在一些基本问题。该项目将使用新的观测和新的分析技术来揭示龙卷风旋转的起源，地面摩擦是否是一个重要因素，以及风如何随高度变化影响雷暴的初始发展。这项研究的结果可能会为天气预报员提供更多的线索，来解释为什么在相同的环境下，有些风暴会形成龙卷风，而有些则不会。研究人员还计划通过各种外展机制促进公众对科学的理解，并将培养多名研究生。该项目关注与超级单体雷暴有关的一系列问题，从开始到龙卷风形成。与龙卷风相关的研究以三个核心问题为指导：1)临床气压产生的涡度对龙卷风的发展有多重要；2)下伏表面是否是龙卷风的关键涡度来源；3)为什么在相似环境下的超级单体风暴往往表现如此不同？为了解决这些问题，研究小组将调查从VORTEX-II和TORUS野外活动中观测到的一些龙卷风风暴。将对多多普勒雷达数据进行非对称拉格朗日分析（DLA）技术，并结合群探空热力学观测，创建4D热力学和速度场，然后将其用于材料电路分析，以证明低层环流的斜压起源。此外，材料电路分析将用于现有的25个成员组成的75米分辨率数值模型模拟。新的模拟将在更广义的非平衡下边界条件下进行，使用来自工程界的双层模型概念来解决项目的摩擦部分。新的模型模拟也将进行，以解决与剪切和对流模式的环境控制有关的对流起始的不确定性。研究小组计划针对以下问题进行对流启动（CI）工作：1)什么是垂直风切变的多种方式抑制或促进CI, 2)如何他们的相对重要性取决于剪切的高度和深度,以及参与CI气团边界的特点,和3)在多大程度上做一个气团边界的特点,比如它的水平温度梯度,深度,和前进速度相对于上面的环境风的边界,影响对流风暴的组织吗?该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。