PIPP Phase I: Modeling the Pandemic Lifecycle for Disease Control

尽管付出了相当大的努力，传染病专家仍无法预测下一次大流行。大流行的预测、预防和缓解需要大胆的新方法。该研究小组调查了“大流行生命周期”--从当地接触网络传播开始，到区域传播，然后是国际传播--重点是这个生命周期的早期阶段。在疫情爆发的早期阶段，传染病通过接触模式在当地个人之间传播;随着疫情的扩大，感染有机会在新的社区播种，并重复当地传播的过程。大多数传播在这些早期阶段未被发现，但这是控制最具成本效益和最有可能成功的时候。该项目研究传染病和人类知识如何在人类接触网络上相互作用，确定调查疫情早期阶段所需的方法和数据，并在大流行生命周期的背景下实施新的方法来预测和控制疫情。研究结果可以帮助公共卫生当局和科学家更好地建模和监测未来的疫情，并有可能降低疾病风险，挽救生命，改善全球经济成果。来自北卡罗来纳州三角地区三个机构的研究人员合作，使用以网络为中心的视角调查疫情。研究人员利用现有数据，并建立在全球卫生，统计网络科学，经济学，工程学，生态学和进化，地理学和社会学方面的国际伙伴关系和优势的基础上，以描述区域性爆发和感染传播的特征。第一阶段的研究活动侧重于一系列工作组和一项试点研究。工作组围绕着关于大流行生命周期的基本问题（但目前尚未得到解答）而组织。试点研究旨在开发一个模拟模型，以进一步探讨这些问题，并验证和扩展统计方法，以描述与不完全抽样有关的早期传播。该项目的最终目标是推进方法和知识，培养研究生和博士后研究人员，并为未来实施这些研究目标做好准备，以加强大流行预测和控制。该奖项由跨部门的大流行预防第一阶段预测情报（PIPP）计划提供支持，该计划由生物科学（BIO），计算机信息科学与工程（CISE），工程（ENG）和社会，行为和经济科学（SBE）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

Despite considerable effort, infectious disease experts are unable to predict the next major pandemic. Bold new approaches are needed for pandemic prediction, prevention, and mitigation. This research team investigates the “pandemic lifecycle” – starting from transmission on local contact networks, to regional and then international spread – with a focus on early stages of this lifecycle. During the early stages of an outbreak, an infectious disease spreads among individuals locally through contact patterns; as the outbreak grows, opportunities arise for infections to seed new communities and repeat the process of local transmission. Most transmission goes undetected in these early stages, yet this is when control is most cost-effective and most likely to succeed. The project examines how infectious disease and human knowledge interact on human contact networks, identifies methods and data needed to investigate early stages of outbreaks, and implements new approaches to predict and control outbreaks in the context of the pandemic lifecycle. Findings can help public health authorities and scientists to better model and monitor future outbreaks, with the potential to reduce disease risk, save lives, and improve economic outcomes globally. Researchers from across three institutions in the North Carolina Triangle region collaborate to investigate outbreaks using a network-centered perspective. The investigators use existing data and build on international partnerships and strengths in global health, statistical network sciences, economics, engineering, ecology and evolution, geography, and sociology to characterize outbreaks and the dissemination of infection regionally. The Phase I research activities focus on a series of Working Groups and a Pilot Study. The Working Groups are organized around fundamental – but currently unanswered – questions about the pandemic lifecycle. The Pilot Study aims to develop a simulation model to further explore these questions, and to validate and extend statistical methods to characterize early-stage transmission in relation to incomplete sampling. The ultimate goals of the project are to advance methods and knowledge, train graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher, and prepare for future implementation of these research thrusts to enhance pandemic prediction and control.This award is supported by the cross-directorate Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention Phase I (PIPP) program, which is jointly funded by the Directorates for Biological Sciences (BIO), Computer Information Science and Engineering (CISE), Engineering (ENG) and Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.