Integrated assessment of climate change, climate input errors and land-use change on soil-moisture and carbon-balance in a catchment simulation framework

在流域模拟框架中综合评估气候变化、气候输入误差和土地利用变化对土壤水分和碳平衡的影响

• 批准号: LP0883296
• 负责人: Prof Ashish Sharma
• 金额: $ 18.56万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Linkage Projects
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2009-06-30 至 2013-06-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/LP0883296
• 关键词: Integrated; assessment; climate; change; input

Assessing soil moisture and carbon balance changes in a warmer climate is important for land-use and agricultural planning. A decision support tool is proposed that performs the assessment and allows us to develop plans that reduce adverse impacts. The tool consists of three parts. The first part models changes in rainfall accuracy to calibrate approaches for catchment simulation. The second part simulates rainfall under climate change conditions using stochastic downscaling. The third part simulates future soil moisture and carbon balance using downscaled climate inputs. The end result is a probabilistic simulation of the catchment hydrology under future climates.

在气候变暖的情况下，评估土壤水分和碳平衡的变化对土地利用和农业规划很重要。建议使用决策支持工具来执行评估，并使我们能够制定减少不利影响的计划。该工具由三个部分组成。第一部分模拟降雨精度的变化，以校准流域模拟的方法。第二部分利用随机降尺度模拟气候变化条件下的降雨量。第三部分使用缩小尺度的气候输入来模拟未来的土壤水分和碳平衡。最终结果是对未来气候下流域水文的概率模拟。