Multi-site probabilistic streamflow forecasting for water management applications

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This project will develop methodologies for probabilistic forecasting of streamflow at multiple locations in a catchment. These probabilistic forecasts will be used to develop alternate reservoir operating policies that allow operators to use current climate information to maximise water supply at controlled levels of risk. The probabilistic forecasts will be formulated using data representing the regional and global climate, and validated retrospectively over time. Once completed, this research will provide a means for risk-based management and hence a more reliable evaluation of the hydrologic, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of alternative water resource management planning scenarios.