Collaborative Research: Separating the Climate and Weather of River Channels: Characterizing Dynamics of Coarse-Grained River Channel Response to Perturbations Across Scales

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Mountain rivers play a distinctive role as the primary agents of distributing sediment and nutrients from mountains to lowlands, as critical freshwater source areas for the Western United States, and as vital aquatic habitats. However, mountain rivers are highly susceptible to the compound hazards presented by global climate change and shifting precipitation patterns. Increasing rainfall intensity can result in more frequent flooding and landsliding while increasing drought severity enhances the threat of wildfire, vegetation loss, and extreme erosion risks. This project aims to develop a physical model to assess the sensitivity of mountain river channels to these shifts in climate and their associated hazards. This research will help to identify where river channels are susceptible to significant change and guide management and engineering practices for mitigation and sustainable restoration. Project results will directly support underserved and minority high school and undergraduates with hands-on engaging learning and research STEM experiences at project Universities.This research aims to develop an understanding of how mountain river channel geometry dynamically responds to flooding and other watershed perturbations. The research is organized around the central question of separating river response due to a perturbation from the inherent natural variability present within watersheds. Separating signals of change from variability involves three components: a physics-based model for the expected river conditions under natural forcing, quantification of the inherent natural variability within the river channel system across the riverbed and reach scale, and a physical description with quantified adjustment times for river response to perturbations across these scales. This research will accomplish all three components by: (1) leveraging high resolution lidar topography and sediment transport data to establish a baseline level of variability and the dependence on the scale of variability on climatic and geologic factors; (2) developing a physical link between hydraulic perturbations, river planform instability, and the threshold processes underpinning sediment transport through high resolution laboratory experiments; and (3) pilot a signal-to-noise framework at sites where documented perturbations have both destabilized the system or appear to have been buffered by river processes. Expected results will aid researchers and engineers in determining which river systems are vulnerable to erosion due changing climate and landscapes, and provide a foundation for treating rivers dynamically within the next-generation of river flood hazard forecasting models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.