RAPID: Can Big Ideas About Resilience Survive the Reality of a Disaster? Built Environment Policy and Recovery After the Marshall Fire

2021年12月30日，气候驱动和天气驱动的马歇尔大火摧毁了路易斯维尔、苏必利尔邦和未合并的博尔德县社区的1084所房屋，另有149所房屋受损，成为科罗拉多州历史上最具破坏性的火灾。对于这些社区以及越来越多因气候变化而面临一系列新风险的社区，现在出现了一些关键问题：这些事件是会增强社区建立气候适应能力的决心，还是会削弱公众对有利于降低短期恢复成本的政策的支持？经历过重建和恢复的社区成员是否会改变他们对弹性政策的看法和支持？快速反应研究拨款（Rapid）项目侧重于地方一级的法规，这些法规有助于社区的灾害和气候适应能力，但可能使发展成本更高，特别是在短期内。先前的研究表明，公众支持、外部资源和项目的可用性和要求会影响这些地方政府的决策，但尚不清楚这种支持在灾难等冲击后是否会发生变化，以及在多大程度上发生变化。本研究试图通过收集马歇尔火灾后的易腐数据来了解这些政策决策是如何受到个人偏好和决策的影响的。本研究以灾后恢复和复原力理论为指导，这些理论描述了当地政府政策在灾难性事件后如何成功或失败。灾后规划和政策环境的特点是时间压缩，城市发展进程在较短的时间框架内进行。有些计划和政策比其他计划和政策更适合时间压缩；特别是，时间压缩对规划和监管等官僚活动具有挑战性，这些活动通常依赖于漫长的利益相关者和公众参与过程，以帮助平衡短期和长期政策考虑。与此同时，大量研究表明，政府主导的恢复过程——政策是如何制定的，利益相关者和居民参与的性质、质量和协调——对地方政府在灾难后可能做出的政策变化的广度和范围有重大影响。聚焦事件研究表明，这种关系在灾难发生后尤其重要，因为对政府的信任、政策偏好和公众对决策的参与可能会发生重大变化，有时是由技术官僚主导，而不是通过公开的协商过程。对政府的信任——受到政府官员和工作人员与居民的沟通以及在社区中建立的灾害恢复进程的双向协商性质的影响——也是是否作出政策改变以加强复原力的一个重要决定因素。目前尚不清楚的是，在像马歇尔火灾这样的意外和计划外灾难发生后，以前建立的弹性政策是否能够在时间紧迫的恢复过程中存活下来。为了调查这些问题，研究团队将(1)对马歇尔火灾发生时居住在三个受影响司法管辖区的个人进行纵向调查，以评估他们重建或搬迁的意图、他们在恢复过程中的参与程度、他们对弹性政策的支持程度以及他们对政府的态度和信任程度。他们还将(2)采访当地政府选举产生的官员，(3)观察灾难恢复会议，(4)分析灾难性火灾后第一年的恢复相关计划和文件。研究小组将对这些数据进行分析，以更清楚地了解在时间压缩的灾难恢复过程中，地方一级的弹性政策偏好和过程。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

On December 30, 2021, the climate-enabled and weather-driven Marshall Fire destroyed 1,084 homes and damaged 149 more in the communities of Louisville, Superior, and unincorporated Boulder County, becoming the most destructive fire in Colorado’s history. For these and the growing number of communities facing a new set of risks due to climate change, key questions now emerge: Will these events strengthen communities’ resolve to build climate resilience, or erode public support for such policies in favor of reducing short-term recovery costs? And do community members who live through rebuilding and recovery shift their opinions of and support for resilience policies? This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project focuses on local-level regulations that contribute to disaster and climate resilience of communities but that can make development more costly, particularly in the short-term. Prior work has shown that public support and the availability and requirements of external resources and programs shape these local government decisions, but it is unclear whether and to what extent this support changes after a shock such as a disaster. This study seeks to understand how these policy decisions are affected by and affect individual preferences and decisions by collecting perishable data after the Marshall Fire.This study is guided by theories of post-disaster recovery and resilience that describe how local government policies succeed or fail after catastrophic events. The post-disaster planning and policy environment is characterized by time compression, when urban development processes occur within shortened timeframes. Some plans and policies are more compatible with time compression than others; in particular, time compression is challenging for bureaucratic activities like planning and regulation that ordinarily rely on lengthy stakeholder and public engagement processes to help balance short- and long-term policy considerations. Meanwhile, a substantial body of research shows that the process of government-led recovery – how policies are formulated and the nature, quality, and coordination of stakeholder and resident engagement – has significant influence on the breadth and scope of policy changes that local governments are likely to make after a disaster. The focusing events scholarship suggests that this relationship may be especially important after disaster when trust in government, policy preferences, and public involvement in decision making can vary significantly, sometimes being led by technocrats rather than through open consultative processes. Trust in government – influenced by communication from government officials and staff to residents and also by the two-way consultative nature of disaster recovery processes established in a community – is also an important determinant of whether policy changes to bolster resilience are made. What is unclear is whether previously established resilience policies can survive in the time-compressed recovery process after an unanticipated and un-planned-for disaster like the Marshall Fire. To investigate these questions, the research team will (1) administer a longitudinal survey of individuals who lived in three affected jurisdictions at the time of the Marshall Fire to assess their intent to rebuild or relocate, their engagement in the recovery process, their support for resilience policies, and their attitudes towards and trust in government over time. They will also (2) interview local government elected officials, (3) observe disaster recovery meetings, and (4) analyze recovery-related plans and documents during the first year after the catastrophic fire. The research team will analyze these data to seek a clearer understanding of local-level resilience policy preferences and processes during time-compressed disaster recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.