RAPID: Can Big Ideas About Resilience Survive the Reality of a Disaster? Built Environment Policy and Recovery After the Marshall Fire

RAPID：关于复原力的伟大想法能否在灾难的现实中幸存下来？

• 批准号: 2220589
• 负责人: Deserai Crow
• 金额: $ 10.04万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Denver-Downtown Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-04-01 至 2023-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2220589&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Big; Ideas; About; Resilience

On December 30, 2021, the climate-enabled and weather-driven Marshall Fire destroyed 1,084 homes and damaged 149 more in the communities of Louisville, Superior, and unincorporated Boulder County, becoming the most destructive fire in Colorado’s history. For these and the growing number of communities facing a new set of risks due to climate change, key questions now emerge: Will these events strengthen communities’ resolve to build climate resilience, or erode public support for such policies in favor of reducing short-term recovery costs? And do community members who live through rebuilding and recovery shift their opinions of and support for resilience policies? This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project focuses on local-level regulations that contribute to disaster and climate resilience of communities but that can make development more costly, particularly in the short-term. Prior work has shown that public support and the availability and requirements of external resources and programs shape these local government decisions, but it is unclear whether and to what extent this support changes after a shock such as a disaster. This study seeks to understand how these policy decisions are affected by and affect individual preferences and decisions by collecting perishable data after the Marshall Fire.This study is guided by theories of post-disaster recovery and resilience that describe how local government policies succeed or fail after catastrophic events. The post-disaster planning and policy environment is characterized by time compression, when urban development processes occur within shortened timeframes. Some plans and policies are more compatible with time compression than others; in particular, time compression is challenging for bureaucratic activities like planning and regulation that ordinarily rely on lengthy stakeholder and public engagement processes to help balance short- and long-term policy considerations. Meanwhile, a substantial body of research shows that the process of government-led recovery – how policies are formulated and the nature, quality, and coordination of stakeholder and resident engagement – has significant influence on the breadth and scope of policy changes that local governments are likely to make after a disaster. The focusing events scholarship suggests that this relationship may be especially important after disaster when trust in government, policy preferences, and public involvement in decision making can vary significantly, sometimes being led by technocrats rather than through open consultative processes. Trust in government – influenced by communication from government officials and staff to residents and also by the two-way consultative nature of disaster recovery processes established in a community – is also an important determinant of whether policy changes to bolster resilience are made. What is unclear is whether previously established resilience policies can survive in the time-compressed recovery process after an unanticipated and un-planned-for disaster like the Marshall Fire. To investigate these questions, the research team will (1) administer a longitudinal survey of individuals who lived in three affected jurisdictions at the time of the Marshall Fire to assess their intent to rebuild or relocate, their engagement in the recovery process, their support for resilience policies, and their attitudes towards and trust in government over time. They will also (2) interview local government elected officials, (3) observe disaster recovery meetings, and (4) analyze recovery-related plans and documents during the first year after the catastrophic fire. The research team will analyze these data to seek a clearer understanding of local-level resilience policy preferences and processes during time-compressed disaster recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2021年12月30日，气候驱动和天气驱动的马歇尔大火摧毁了路易斯维尔，上级和未合并的博尔德县社区的1，084所房屋，并损坏了149所房屋，成为科罗拉多历史上最具破坏性的火灾。对于这些社区以及越来越多的社区来说，由于气候变化而面临一系列新的风险，现在出现了关键问题：这些事件是否会加强社区建立气候适应力的决心，或者削弱公众对这些政策的支持，以减少短期恢复成本？经历重建和恢复的社区成员是否改变了他们对复原力政策的看法和支持？快速反应研究赠款（RAPID）项目侧重于地方一级的法规，这些法规有助于社区的灾害和气候适应能力，但可能会使发展成本更高，特别是在短期内。此前的研究表明，公众支持以及外部资源和计划的可用性和需求会影响这些地方政府的决策，但目前尚不清楚这种支持是否以及在多大程度上会在灾难等冲击后发生变化。本研究旨在了解这些政策决定是如何影响和影响个人的偏好和决策后收集易腐的数据马歇尔火灾。本研究的指导下，灾后恢复和韧性的理论，描述了地方政府政策的成功或失败后，灾难性事件。灾后规划和政策环境的特点是时间紧迫，城市发展进程的时间框架缩短。有些计划和政策比其他计划和政策更适合时间压缩;特别是，时间压缩对于规划和监管等官僚活动来说是一个挑战，因为这些活动通常依赖漫长的利益攸关方和公众参与过程来帮助平衡短期和长期政策考虑。另一方面，大量研究表明，政府主导的灾后恢复过程--政策的制定方式、利益相关者和居民参与的性质、质量和协调性--对地方政府在灾后可能进行的政策变革的广度和范围具有重大影响。聚焦事件奖学金表明，这种关系在灾难发生后可能特别重要，因为对政府的信任，政策偏好和公众参与决策可能会有很大的不同，有时是由技术官僚领导，而不是通过公开的协商过程。对政府的信任-受到政府官员和工作人员与居民沟通的影响，也受到社区建立的灾后恢复进程的双向协商性质的影响-也是是否作出政策改变以加强抗灾能力的一个重要决定因素。目前尚不清楚的是，在发生马歇尔大火等意外和计划外的灾难后，先前制定的恢复政策是否能在时间紧迫的恢复过程中生存下来。为了调查这些问题，研究小组将（1）对马歇尔火灾发生时居住在三个受影响司法管辖区的个人进行纵向调查，以评估他们重建或搬迁的意图，他们在恢复过程中的参与，他们对复原力政策的支持，以及他们对政府的态度和信任。他们还将（2）采访当地政府民选官员，（3）观察灾难恢复会议，（4）分析灾难性火灾后第一年的恢复相关计划和文件。研究团队将分析这些数据，以寻求在时间紧迫的灾难恢复过程中更清晰地了解地方层面的弹性政策偏好和流程。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。