Causal determinants of maternal labor market outcomes and child development

在人口老龄化、熟练劳动力短缺迫在眉睫和女性劳动力参与率上升的情况下，德国和其他经合组织国家采取了一系列改革（儿童保育、育儿假福利、父亲家庭假），这些改革直接影响到母亲的劳动力参与和育儿的社会规范，并间接影响到儿童的发展。在此背景下，我们建议使用最新的数据和方法来回答与国际相关的问题，并提高我们对孕产妇劳动力市场结果和儿童发展决定因素的理解。研究结果对社会最感兴趣的问题产生了新的见解，比如女性参与劳动力市场背后的模式，以及儿童福利的决定因素，包括父母背景的异质性。具体而言，拟议的项目调查了以下因素的因果影响：(1)母亲选择时间对母亲劳动力市场结果（如参与、工作时间或工资）的影响，(2)母亲选择时间和生育间隔对儿童结果（如认知和非认知技能）的影响，以及(3)母亲参与劳动力市场和就业中断对儿童结果（如健康和行为问题）的影响。为了确定因果关系，子项目1和2利用生育冲击的个人经验（例如，流产或父母一方暂时不孕），子项目3利用德国育儿假制度最近的改革，该制度产生了严重的制度不连续性，几乎没有预测的机会。利用最新数据和创新方法，我们的研究将回答与社会和政策制定者高度相关的问题，例如，推迟第一胎生育是否会改善孕产妇劳动力市场的结果，其影响是否因孕产妇年龄而异？父母是否可以通过延长兄弟姐妹之间的生育间隔来影响孩子的早期技能形成？-在孩子出生后的第一年或第二年休产假是否会改善孩子的健康状况？这种效果是否因母亲的教育程度和孩子的性别而异？我们的三个子项目都提出了原创性的研究问题，并应用适当的研究设计来提高知识水平，并以各种创新的方式扩展国际文献。拟议的研究得益于数据的可用性以及经验丰富的国际研究团队的倡议和承诺。此外，每个子项目除了单纯的科学兴趣外，还具有社会和经济意义。

In a situation of demographic aging, impending shortages of skilled labor, and rising female labor force participation rates, Germany as well as other OECD countries have adopted a set of reforms (of child care, parental leave benefits, paternal family leave) which directly affect maternal labor force participation and the social norms of childrearing, and which indirectly impact child development. Against this backdrop we propose to use up-to-date data and methods to answer questions of international relevance and to improve our understanding of the determinants of maternal labor market outcomes and child development. The results generate new insights on issues of utmost social interest such as the patterns behind female participation in the labor market and the determinants of child wellbeing including its heterogeneity across parental backgrounds.Specifically, the proposed project investigates the causal effects of (1) motherhood timing on maternal labor market outcomes (e.g., participation, working hours, or wages), (2) motherhood timing and birth spacing on child outcomes (e.g., cognitive and non-cognitive skills), and (3) maternal labor market participation and employment interruptions on child outcomes (e.g., health and behavioral problems). To identify causal effects, subprojects 1 and 2 use the individual experience of fertility shocks (e.g., miscarriages or temporal infertility of either parent) and subproject 3 exploits a recent reform of the German parental leave system which generated a sharp institutional discontinuity with little opportunity for anticipation.Using recent data and innovative approaches our research will answer questions of high relevance for society and policy-makers, such as- does delaying first births improve maternal labor market outcomes, and does the effect vary by maternal age?- can parents affect their children's early skill formation through longer spacing between sibling births?- does maternal leave taking in the first or second year of a child's life improve child outcomes and does the effect vary by maternal education and the child's sex?Each of our three subprojects proposes original research questions and applies appropriate research designs to advance the level of knowledge and to extend the international literature in various innovative ways. The proposed research benefits from the availability of the data and from the initiative and commitment of an experienced international research team. Furthermore, each subproject is socially and economically relevant beyond mere scientific interest.