RAPID: Antecedents and Consequences of Disaster-Related Conspiracy Theories

阴谋论是一种信念，认为有权势的行动者为了自己的政治或个人利益而从事广泛的黑箱活动（通常是犯罪或不明确的合法活动）。阴谋论经常出现在大规模的、令人惊讶的、负面的事件中，作为人们试图满足由事件引发的对秩序、确定性和控制的认知和存在需求的一种尝试。虽然阴谋论信仰通常是世俗心理和战略过程的结果，但它们可能对民主治理/问责制、国家安全、国家健康、繁荣和福利产生负面影响。阴谋论以归因为中心，可以激发人们对归因的态度和行为。因此，它们对民主治理和问责制尤其成问题。为了检验重大自然灾害后公众对阴谋论的认知对选举结果的影响，本项目调查了一个具有全国代表性的样本，其中包括在全国大选前刚刚经历大地震的地区的1000名公民，以及在全国大选后不久的1000名公民。这项研究促进了人们对这样一种说法的理解：认为自己在政治中处于劣势的人比在政治中处于优势的人更容易相信阴谋论。该项目将在全国选举前对1000名具有全国代表性的公民进行抽样调查，并在全国选举后不久对1000名具有全国代表性的公民进行第二次抽样调查。调查将包括一些问题，旨在评估受访者对一系列与地震有关的阴谋论的认可程度，以及阴谋论信仰的前因和后果。选前和选后调查将采用分层概率抽样框架，随机选择地区和社区/村庄作为主要抽样单位。这两个样本将按国家人口基准加权。拟议的项目通过三种方式促进了我们对这些重要信念的理解：(1)它认为，不同的阴谋论可以满足不同的动机，因此，共同研究的前因和每个阴谋论之间的联系强度将根据阴谋论本身的特点而变化；(2)它探讨了阴谋论信仰的前因和后果在一场激烈竞争的、充满意识形态的选举前后是否不同；(3)该项目的选前/选后设计将能够直接测试认为自己在政治上处于失败一方的人比他们的对手更容易相信阴谋论的断言。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

A conspiracy theory is the belief that powerful actors are engaging in wide-ranging, black-boxed (often criminal or ambiguously legal) activities for their own political or personal gain. Conspiracy theories often arise in response to large-scale, surprising, negative events as an attempt for people to satisfy epistemic and existential needs for order, certainty, and control that are triggered by the event. Although conspiracy theory beliefs often the result of mundane psychological and strategic processes, they can have negative consequences for democratic governance/accountability, national security, and national health, prosperity, and welfare. Conspiracy theories center on blame attribution and can motivate attitudes and behavior in response to the attribution. As such, they are particularly problematic for democratic governance and accountability. To examine the effect of public perception of conspiracy theories on electoral outcomes in the aftermath of a major natural disaster, this project surveys a nationally representative sample of 1,000 citizens in a region that has just experienced a major earthquake prior to a national election and 1,000 citizens shortly after the national election. The study advances understanding of the assertion that people who perceive themselves to be on the losing side of politics are more likely to believe conspiracy theories than their counterparts on the winning side of politics. The project will survey a nationally representative sample of 1,000 citizens prior to a national election and a second nationally representative sample of 1,000 citizens shortly after the national election. The surveys will be comprised of questions aimed at assessing the extent to which respondents endorse a series of earthquake-related conspiracy theories as well as the antecedents and consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs. A stratified probability sampling frame based on the random selection of districts and neighborhoods/villages as primary sampling units will be used for both the pre- and post-election surveys. Both samples will be weighted to national demographic benchmarks. The proposed project advances our understanding of these consequential beliefs in three ways: (1) it argues that different conspiracy theories can satisfy different motives, and that, therefore the strength of association between commonly-studied antecedents and each conspiracy theory will vary depending on the characteristics of the conspiracy theories themselves, (2) it explores whether the antecedents and consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs differ before and after a hotly contested, ideologically-charged election, (3) the project's pre/post-election design will enable a direct test the assertion that people who perceive themselves to be on the losing side of politics are more likely to believe conspiracy theories than their counterparts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.