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A novel approach to disentangle climate change and arable land management change as drivers of weed flora shifts - Combining species distribution modelling and dynamic population modelling

一种解决杂草区系变化驱动因素的气候变化和耕地管理变化的新方法——结合物种分布模型和动态种群模型

基本信息

批准号：
275045554
负责人：
Dr. Jana Bürger
金额：
--
依托单位：
Lehrstuhl für Phytomedizin (PM)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/275045554?language=en
关键词：
novel approach disentangle climate change

项目摘要

Arable weed distributions are influenced by environmental factors and crop management. Climate change and intensified arable land management have been important drivers of recent shifts in weed flora. Indirect impacts are also expected from on-farm adaptation measures to climate change. Although both drivers have been intensively studied, their interaction and combined effects have until now hardly been addressed. One factor may increase or decrease the impact of the other and the interactions may have spatial or temporal patterns. A major obstacle for analysis is that both act on drivers differing temporal and spatial scales, so their impacts need to be analysed with different techniques. Species distribution modelling (SDM) studies have for example predicted range shifts under future climate with a North Eastern direction. SDM can be adapted to some extent to the arable context with its regular, strong disturbances by crop measures. However, because SDM have relatively coarse resolutions they cannot incorporate local scale effects of changes in crop management such as a more simplified crop rotation.This project therefore proposes a novel, combined approach of SDM and dynamic crop:weed modelling to analyse the relative contribution of climate change and land management change on arable weed flora changes. It is hypothesised that diverse cropping systems (with diverse rotations and diverse crop management) would facilitate weed management under the impact of climate change by reducing shifts to a more homogenous weed flora composition with high abundance of single species. The project will focus on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a typical temperate arable region of Central Europe, but the approach will be transferable to other regions. Changes will be investigated for the time periods 2030-2060 and 2070-2100.The project addresses a number of research questions and hypotheses in three parts. First, SDM are built for weed species that are important or are expected to become important to estimate future regional distributions and species pools. The second part FlorSys is used, a very detailed crop:weed model for population dynamics of multi-species weed associations. The transferability of the model to the conditions of Northern Germany will be tested. Then the development of the species pools resulting from SDM is modelled in different scenarios of land management and climate change. Subsequently, the results of both modelling approaches are combined in ordination, clustering and regression analyses to investigate the impact of each driver and their interactions on weed floras.Besides the insight into the relation between climate change, land management change and weed floras, the approach will provide farmers with information on possible future weed problems and their causes on an appropriate, regional scale. It therefore contributes to the preparation of adaptation strategies for climate change.

农田杂草的分布受环境因素和作物管理的影响。气候变化和加强耕地管理是最近杂草植物群变化的重要驱动因素。农场对气候变化的适应措施预计也会产生间接影响。虽然这两个驱动因素都得到了深入研究，但它们的相互作用和综合影响迄今为止几乎没有得到解决。一个因素可能增加或减少另一个因素的影响，相互作用可能具有空间或时间模式。分析的一个主要障碍是，两者作用于不同的时间和空间尺度的驱动因素，因此需要用不同的技术分析其影响。例如，物种分布模型研究预测了未来气候下的分布范围向东北方向移动。SDM可以在一定程度上适应耕作环境，其定期，强烈的干扰作物措施。然而，由于SDM有相对粗糙的分辨率，他们不能纳入当地规模的影响，在作物管理的变化，如更简化的作物轮作，因此，本项目提出了一种新的，结合SDM和动态作物：杂草模型来分析气候变化和土地管理的变化对耕地杂草植物群变化的相对贡献。据推测，不同的种植制度（不同的轮作和不同的作物管理）将有助于杂草管理的气候变化的影响下，减少转移到一个更均匀的杂草植物群组成与高丰度的单一物种。该项目将侧重于梅克伦堡-沃尔波梅尔恩，这是中欧典型的温带可耕地地区，但这一办法也可推广到其他地区。将调查2030-2060年和2070- 2100年的变化。该项目分三个部分解决了一些研究问题和假设。首先，SDM是为重要或预计将成为重要的杂草物种建立的，以估计未来的区域分布和物种库。第二部分使用了FlorSys，一个非常详细的作物：杂草模型，用于多物种杂草协会的种群动态。将测试该模型在北方德国条件下的可移植性。然后，在不同的土地管理和气候变化情景下，模拟SDM产生的物种库的发展。随后，这两种建模方法的结果相结合的排序，聚类和回归分析，调查每个驱动程序和它们之间的相互作用对杂草floras. Father洞察到气候变化，土地管理的变化和杂草植物群之间的关系的影响，该方法将为农民提供有关未来可能的杂草问题及其原因在适当的区域尺度上的信息。因此，它有助于制定适应气候变化的战略。