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Export Cartels, Financial Speculation and Commodity Crises

出口卡特尔、金融投机和商品危机

基本信息

批准号：
277312831
负责人：
Dr. Hinnerk Gnutzmann
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institute of Economic Sciences PAN
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2015-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/277312831?language=en
关键词：
Export Cartels Financial Speculation Commodity

项目摘要

In 2007-2008, a food crisis erupted and raised the prices of vital commodities by 40% on average. While the severity of the crisis, especially on the developing world, is undoubted, so far little is known about the root causes of the crisis and how one may hope to mitigate future ones. Will shed light on this issue, by investigating the connection between financial speculation, the formation of export cartels, and the subsequent commodity crisis. Our preliminary work indicates that this hypothesis may provide a novel and compelling explanation of both the timing and severity of the crisis.The project consists of four work packages. First, we investigate theoretically the relationship between financial speculation and the sustainability of an export cartel. Second, we study trade policy and institutional responses to export cartels. Third, we explore empirically the role of financial speculation on the formation of the global fertilizer cartel from 2007 and the subsequent food crisis. Finally, a highly-integrated work package will develop a structural model of the commodity market with speculation and cartel formation, combining results from all previous work packages.Is food speculation a "scandal" (EU Commissioner Bernier)? Supposedly so, if it causes high food prices that starve the developing world. The current literature on the role of finance in the food crisis has generally asked whether speculation increases the co-movement of food prices with financial indices; results have been ambiguous. We believe they may have looked in the wrong place: speculation may have contributed to the formation of a global cartel for fertilizer, which happened exactly at the crisis time. And fertilizer is an essential input to industrial food production; in our preliminary work, we estimate that this cost shock may explain nearly two-thirds of the crisis time price increase.The Beethoven call offers a unique opportunity for research in this important area, facilitating tight integration of research experience in financial economics and econometrics (Poland) with international trade and industrial organization (Germany). Together with our international collaborators in competition law (Italy) and empirical finance (China), we look forward to a very fruitful project.

2007-2008年，粮食危机爆发，使重要商品的价格平均上涨了40%。虽然危机的严重性，特别是对发展中世界的严重性，得到了承认，但迄今为止，人们对危机的根本原因以及如何减轻未来危机所知甚少。通过调查金融投机、出口卡特尔的形成和随后的商品危机之间的联系，将阐明这一问题。我们的初步工作表明，这一假设可能提供了一个新的和令人信服的解释的时间和危机的严重性。首先，我们从理论上研究了金融投机与出口卡特尔可持续性之间的关系。第二，我们研究贸易政策和制度的出口卡特尔的反应。第三，我们从实证上探讨了金融投机对2007年以来全球化肥卡特尔的形成以及随后的粮食危机的作用。最后，高度一体化的一揽子工作方案将综合以往所有一揽子工作方案的成果，建立一个存在投机和卡特尔形成的商品市场结构模型。粮食投机是“丑闻”吗（欧盟委员Bernier）？假设是这样，如果它导致粮食价格上涨，导致发展中国家挨饿的话。目前关于金融在粮食危机中的作用的文献一般都在问，投机是否会增加粮食价格与金融指数的联动;结果一直不明确。我们认为，他们可能找错了地方：投机可能促成了全球化肥卡特尔的形成，而这恰恰发生在危机时期。化肥是工业化粮食生产的重要投入;在我们的初步工作中，我们估计这种成本冲击可以解释危机时期价格上涨的近三分之二。贝多芬的呼吁为这一重要领域的研究提供了一个独特的机会，促进了金融经济学和计量经济学（波兰）与国际贸易和工业组织（德国）的研究经验的紧密结合。我们与竞争法（意大利）和实证金融（中国）领域的国际合作者一起，期待着一个非常富有成效的项目。