Modelling Retirement Decisions with Incomplete Rationality - Insights for Policy Design

不完全理性的退休决策建模 - 政策设计的见解

• 批准号: 277312896
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Patrick Puhani
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Arbeitsökonomik
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/277312896?language=en
• 关键词: Modelling; Retirement; Decisions; Incomplete; Rationality

Voluntary and mandatory pension savings have been lying at the core of the economics of aging for a long time. Demographic change and increased longevity reinforce the political relevance of this field is by putting financial strains on mandatory pay as you go schemes in both Poland and Germany. By increasing the importance of privately financed old-age provisions, governments have shifted the focus from the traditional defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans. Systems based on private savings such as defined contribution schemes, require individual workers recognition that maintaining living standards during retirement necessitates a substantial increase in contemporaneous savings. Both the financial risks entailed in many defined contribution plans and their partial voluntary nature are likely to generate significant heterogeneity in pension outcomes of defined contribution plans. The investment decisions finally made may not only depend on risk aversion and financial literacy, but also on personality traits that have traditionally been analyzed by psychologists, but have so far remained largely absent from pension system analyses. The objective of this project is to overcome the gaps in the literature using three approaches. First, we will empirically analyze the relationship between personality traits (Big Five, locus of control, risk aversion) and private saving and investment decisions using person-level survey data. Moreover, we plan to assess how different levels of financial literacy affect savings. Second, we will test the implicit assumption that the intertemporal allocation of consumption/savings is ruled by the same mechanism as the intratemporal allocation of consumption/leisure. Following the literature, we posit the transitivity property and test it empirically using data on the timing of retirement. Third, both these components will be nested in an overlapping generations (OLG) model with voluntary private savings and financial literacy, to analyze the interplay between the timing of retirement, overall savings and long-run macroeconomic stability. We posit that a tax incentivizing scheme can help to overcome the problem of insufficient private voluntary savings, thus enhancing welfare.

很长一段时间以来，自愿和强制性的养老金节省一直是老化经济学的核心。人口变化和寿命的增加增强了这一领域的政治意义，这是在您在波兰和德国采取计划时，将财务压力放在强制性的薪水上。通过提高私人融资的旧规定的重要性，政府将重点从传统的定义福利养老金计划转移到定义的捐款计划中。基于私人储蓄（例如定义的贡献计划）的系统要求单个工人认识到，在退休期间维持生活水平需要大幅增加同期的储蓄。许多定义的贡献计划中都有两种财务风险，其部分自愿性质可能会在定义的捐款计划的养老金成果中产生明显的异质性。最终，投资决策不仅可能取决于风险的厌恶和金融素养，而且还取决于心理学家传统上分析的人格特征，但到目前为止，养老金系统分析中仍然不存在。该项目的目的是使用三种方法克服文献中的差距。首先，我们将使用人级调查数据来分析人格特质（五大，控制源，风险规避）与私人储蓄和投资决策之间的关系之间的关系。此外，我们计划评估不同水平的金融知识如何影响储蓄。其次，我们将测试隐含的假设，即消费/储蓄的跨期分配由与消费/休闲的临时分配相同的机制统治。遵循文献，我们将传递性属性提出，并使用数据对退休时机进行经验测试。第三，这两个组件都将以自愿的私人储蓄和金融素养嵌套在重叠的世代（OLG）模型中，以分析退休时机，整体储蓄和长期宏观经济稳定性之间的相互作用。我们认为，税收激励计划可以帮助克服不足的私人自愿储蓄问题，从而增强福利。