豪雨による複合災害の伝播経路分析・予測手法の高精度化

提高暴雨复杂灾害传播路径分析和预测方法的准确性

• 批准号: 21K04437
• 负责人: LAM CHI・YUNG
• 金额: $ 2.25万
• 依托单位: Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21K04437/
• 关键词: Risk; Risk Assessment; Risk Management; Cascading Effects; Resilience; Vulnerability; Network Analysis; Infrastructure; 防災・減災; リスク; レジリエンス; 分析・シミュレーション; 複雑ネットワーク科学

One of the main achievements is a nonlinear and cell modeling for the risk analysis and prediction on the mechanisms of rain-induced disasters. Risks are analyzed in terms of probabilities, which are based on the constructed complex network graphs that represent the interdependencies between casual factors and spatial characteristics. Prediction is then based on the calculated risk probabilities and the impacts of the rain-induced disasters. Therefore, based on the nonlinear and cell modeling, another important achievement is that the overall hazard level of an area is able to determine, which is useful to forecast the time-series changing effects and the corresponding time-dependent dynamics behavior from rain-induced disasters.

主要成果之一是建立了用于降雨灾害机制风险分析和预测的非线性元胞模型。根据构建的表示偶然因素与空间特征之间相互依赖关系的复杂网络图，对风险进行概率分析。然后，根据计算的风险概率和降雨引发的灾害的影响进行预测。因此，基于非线性和单元建模的另一项重要成果是能够确定一个地区的总体危险程度，这对于预测降雨灾害的时间序列变化效应和相应的时变动力学行为是有用的。