Developing a novel Climate change Risk Assessment Framework for cultural heritage in Turkey (CRAFT)- Phase II

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There are clear indications of shifts in climatic patterns all around the world and climate change is considered the greatest threat facing humanity and its cultural heritage. UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 aims to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact" where the first target is stated as "Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries". Furthermore, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is an integral part of social and economic development and is essential if development is to be sustainable for the future. The 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development recognises and reaffirms the urgent need to reduce the risk of disasters. Flooding and landslides are one of the most destructive types of natural disasters in Turkey. Flood impacts in Turkey are felt severely in major cities of the country. Istanbul (the largest city in Turkey with 15 million inhabitants) and its UNESCO World Heritage historical areas have recently suffered from frequent floods as a result of intense rainfalls under a changing climate. The severe floods of August-September 2009 in the Marmara region of Turkey were categorised as an event greater than the 500-year return period. Many parts of the old city centre (Historic Peninsula) of Istanbul were flooded. The Historic peninsula also suffered from several major floods in December 2010, July 2017, February 2018 and August 2019. Heavy rains cause flooding events more frequently in recent years than in the past. The deadly 2019 floods, rainfall-triggered landslides, and the subsequent moisture problems have resulted in significant structural damages to cultural heritage; in particular Small HagiaSofia and Ahi Çelebi Mosque The first phase of CRAFT addressed the urgent need for flooding and landslide susceptibility mapping of cultural heritage in Istanbul. We have identified 150 cultural heritage places in the Historical Peninsula of Istanbul which could be endangered by hazards of floods and landslides. An index for damage assessment has been developed. We have recognised the inevitability of loss, where the impacts of climate and environmental change may lead to the conclusion that the conservation and perpetuation of some monuments are unsustainable. We have identified two issues that need to be addressed in order to develop an effective framework for assessing climate impact on cultural heritage in Istanbul: (1) efficient communication and interaction between the different stakeholders and government agencies (2) human activities magnify the risks of floods in Istanbul and there is a need to raise public awareness on cultural heritage and the associated risks. Therefore, in the second stage of the project, we focus on two strands of activities: (1) raising public awareness and (2) creating "Istanbul Heritage Forum", a platform for the protection of the heritage aiming at extending the results of the project beyond the project timeline. The IHF will be formed by representatives of the local community, and institutions.