Urban shoreline amplification of storm surge during extreme tropical cyclones: Current and future flood risks

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Complex urban shorelines can amplify storm surge from extreme tropical cyclones in ways that are different from natural coasts. The purpose of this research is to identify main properties that amplify storm surge and better understand present and future flood risks that urban coastal communities face. A high-resolution storm surge model is being developed and coupled with a large-ensemble climate dataset in order to quantify changes in urban flood risk. This research is being conducted in two main phases: modeling and simulation.Work on Phase 1 (model development) continued in FY2022 with the assistance of two international experts. A prototype with a spatially-flexible finite difference numerical scheme was used to investigate the role bathymetry plays in urban storm surge amplification in Osaka Bay. Parallel work on Phase 2 (ensemble simulation) continued in FY2022. A dataset generated in FY2021 was used to analyze changes in extreme tropical cyclone events and how they might affect coastal flooding in the target areas.Research results from this project were presented at both domestic and international venues. An international conference session was organized in Japan in early FY2022 to facilitate discussion on the research topic and to encourage international collaboration. The conference included domestic and international speakers, both early-career and established. In addition, results of Phase 2 were presented at the Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (USA) during a three-month workshop, and at Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago (USA).