A New Political Weapon? Cyberattacks in Non-Democratic Regimes

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In today’s world, modern information and communication technology (ICT), in particular the Internet, has opened up a new sphere of communication. Some argue that the most fundamental changes introduced by ICT have taken place in non-democratic countries, where ICT infrastructure and communication have become contested for political purposes, and governments and opposition actors can employ a number of tactics in the digital realm. One of the tactics is the use of Denial-of-service (DoS) attacks. In a DoS attack, the targeted server is flooded with traffic to the extent that it cannot be reached anymore. A number of prominent examples suggest that DoS attacks are becoming an important weapon for political conflict both for governments attempting to prevent mobilization, but also by opposition actors attempting to shut down important government targets. So far, however, a systematic analysis is lacking. What are the patterns of DoS attacks in autocratic countries? Who uses them, and what are the consequences? In order to fill these gaps in the scholarly literature, this project teams up with computer scientists that are experts in Internet measurement. With the help of these experts, the project leverages large-scale data collection of DoS attacks on the global Internet in order to systematically measure the incidence of the attacks across and within all states worldwide. This systematic, large-scale data collection will make it possible, for the first time, to (i) map out the global patterns of DoS attacks and analyze the extent to which they are driven by politics, (ii) test how these “new” tactics of contention interact with conventional ones such as protest and repression, and (iii) determine the effects of these attacks both when it comes to international attention, but also to protest dynamics on the ground.