Reliability Assessment of Inspected Marine Structure

受检海洋结构的可靠性评估

• 批准号: 62850075
• 负责人: ITAGAKI Hiroshi
• 金额: $ 4.22万
• 依托单位: Yokohama National University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1987 至 1988
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-62850075/
• 关键词: Bayesian reliability; Inspection; Fuzzy

This study develops a method of Bayesian reliability analysis to establish an optimal inspection scchedule of marine stuctures with multiple components using the data collected during inservice inspections. Expressions for the probabilities of various events that take place at the time of an inspection are derived. On the basis of these probabilities, the posterior degree of belief and Bayesian expected reliability are determined. From the computed relliability, the optimum time of the next inspection is determined. The above mentioned expressions are useful with crisp information about the inspection results. For example, the exact size of the detected crack is needed to estimate the likelyhood. the method cannot be applied if there is only fuzzy information avvailable. Therefore, a fuzzy-Bayesian reliability approach for the decision of proper inspection schedule to maintain structural integrity is also tried in this study. It is found out that the posterior density of uncertain factors is very well defined by the proposed method.

本研究发展了一种贝叶斯可靠性分析方法，利用在役检验中收集的数据，建立多部件海洋结构物的最优检验计划。表达式的概率发生在检查时的各种事件的推导。在此基础上，确定了信度的后验程度和贝叶斯期望信度。根据计算的可靠性，确定下一次检查的最佳时间。上面提到的表达式对于关于检查结果的明确信息是有用的。例如，需要检测到的裂纹的确切尺寸来估计可能性。如果只有模糊信息可用，则不能应用该方法。因此，模糊贝叶斯可靠性方法的决定适当的检查计划，以保持结构完整性也尝试在这项研究中。结果表明，该方法能很好地确定不确定因素的后验密度。

项目成果

Yukio,Fujimot: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio，Fujimot：ICOSSAR89 的会议记录。

Yukio,Fujimoto: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio，Fujimoto：ICOSSAR89 的会议记录。

Seiichi, Ito: "Aplication of Fuzzy-Bayesian Analysis to Structural Reliability" Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Seiichi, Ito：“模糊贝叶斯分析在结构可靠性中的应用”ICOSSAR89 论文集。

Yukio, Fujimot: "Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Structure with Multiple Components" Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio, Fujimot：“多部件结构的贝叶斯可靠性分析”ICOSSAR89 论文集。

Seiichi,Ito: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Seiichi,Ito：ICOSSAR89 论文集。