“The industry of the world’s optimists.” Tourism as a development strategy in Eastern Africa (1950s-early 1990s)

在整个世纪，旅游业已经发展成为“一种令人印象深刻的社会和经济力量”（Berghoff und Korte，2002，1）。旅游业已发展成为一种全球现象，其影响“彻底渗透到社会、政治、文化，尤其是经济”（Gyr 2010）。鉴于这种影响，它也被认为是“实现经济和社会发展的有效手段”，特别是对于全球南方的目的地地区，这似乎并不奇怪（Telfer / Sharpley 2016，3）。然而，人们也可以说，正是人们对旅游业作为一种发展因素不断寄予希望，才使旅游业成为今天的世界：世界上最大的全球“产业”之一。当非洲新独立的国家在1960年代初决定将旅游业作为一项发展战略时，这一政策的经济成功并不是不言而喻的。然而，乐观情绪高涨。旅游业可望增加东道国的外汇收入，大大增加其国民生产总值，成为国家新的收入来源，并创造就业机会。对于那些在全球南部投资项目的人来说，旅游业有着稳定的回报和市场优势。虽然经济危机以及社会和环境影响暂时削弱了这种乐观情绪，但大多数政府和金融家并没有放弃旅游业作为一项发展战略，而是继续倡导旅游业，但他们确实根据不断变化的发展观念调整了自己的期望。以肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚这两个东非国家的野生动物旅游为例，该项目旨在调查是什么助长了这种经济乐观情绪。后殖民政府、金融机构和私人投资者是如何相信旅游业作为发展战略是成功的？面对1970年代和1980年代初的经济危机，它们如何调整自己的期望，这场危机不仅导致游客人数减少，而且削弱了对经济快速增长的信念，并对经济增长作为发展的唯一指标提出了挑战？ 假定参与的行为者不是独立形成其期望的，该项目特别集中于形成旅游业作为发展战略的信念的社会背景和网络。它调查了行为者的偏好、身份和社会规范在多大程度上受到非殖民化、集团对抗和全球化等历史进程的影响。它分析了专家网络和国际组织在期望形成过程中的作用和功能。它还审查了谁对未来的设想最终“成功地”指导了发展政策，谁没有。

Over the course of the 20th century tourism has developed into „an impressive social as well as economic force“ (Berghoff und Korte 2002, 1). Tourism has grown into a global phenomenon whose influence “thoroughly penetrates society, politics, culture and, above all, the economy“ (Gyr 2010). Given this impact, it seems not surprising that it has also come to be considered “an effective means of achieving economic and social development” especially for destination areas in the Global South (Telfer / Sharpley 2016, 3). However, one could also argue that it was the continuous hopes placed in tourism as a development factor that turned it into what it is today: one of the largest global “industries” of the world.When newly independent states in Africa decided to pursue tourism as a development strategy in the early 1960s the economic success of this policy was not self-evident. Nevertheless, optimism ran high. Tourism was expected to increase the foreign exchange earnings of host countries, contribute substantially to their gross national product, form a new source of income for the state and create jobs. To those who invested in projects in the Global South tourism promised stable returns and market advantages. While the economic crisis as well as social and environmental impacts diminished this optimism temporarily, most governments and financiers did not discard tourism as a development strategy, but continued to advocate for it. They did, however, adapt their expectations according to changing notions of development. Looking at the example of wildlife tourism in two East African countries, Kenya and Tanzania, the project aims to investigate what fueled this economic optimism. How did postcolonial governments, financial institutions and private investors come to believe in the success of tourism as development strategy? And how did they adapt their expectations in the face of the economic crisis of the 1970s and early 1980s, that brought with it not only a decrease in tourist arrivals but weakened the belief in rapid economic growth and challenged it as the sole indicator for development? Presuming that the actors involved did not form their expectations independently the project specifically concentrates on the social context and networks that shaped the belief in tourism as development strategy. It investigates the extent to which the actors’ preferences, identities and social norms were influenced by historical processes like decolonization, block confrontation and globalization. It analyses the role and function of expert networks and international organizations within the process of expectation formation. And it examines whose visions of the future eventually “succeeded” in guiding development policies and whose did not.