Achieving yield stability by meta-mechanisms determining the stable canopy development in winter wheat

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Yield stability of winter wheat is a highly relevant trait for cultivar choice by German farmers. Our knowledge about the physiological mechanisms leading to yield stability is very limited because assessing the yield stability of a genotype requires field experiments across multiple years, locations, agriculture practices and comparisons with other genotypes, a time consuming and labour intensive procedure. Here we propose to revisit yield stability using the probabilistic approach in combination with phenomics and large-scale modelling, which allows exploiting the “meta-mechanisms” related to the variability in yield. We further hypothesize that cultivars able to achieve stable canopy development during the vegetative phase are more stable due to the storages of nitrogen and water soluble carbon in the vegetative organs for grain filling. Using six wheat cultivars with similar yield level but contrasting yield stability, a mechanistic functional-structural plant model focusing on the meta-mechanisms controlling the phenology, canopy development, architecture and photosynthesis will be parameterized and evaluated. This model will be used to create virtual genotypes and their canopy development and yield will be simulated with large number of environmental scenarios. The model outcomes will be used to identify which combinations of physiological mechanisms resulting stable yield.