The Hydrological Cycle of Central Asia under Climate and Land Use Changes assessed by a re-gional climate model with novel schemes for irrigation and inland lakes

通过区域气候模型以及新颖的灌溉和内陆湖泊方案评估气候和土地利用变化下的中亚水文循环

• 批准号: 429325034
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Heiko Paeth
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Arbeitsbereich Physische Geographie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/429325034?language=en
• 关键词: Hydrological; Cycle; Central; Asia; under

Central Asia represents a paradigm of large-scale irrigation in arid and subtropical climate zones, respectively. For example, the associated shrinking of the Aral Sea is well known. In contrast, our knowledge of the effect of irrigated agriculture on the regional water cycle in Asia is fairly limited. It can be assumed that evapo-transpiration from open water tables and partly dense vegetation cover in the lowlands along the Syrarya and Amudarya rivers is substantial given partially low cloudiness and high global radiation during summer. It is ignored whether the resulting water vapor is con-densed within the catchments of these rivers, hence intensifying the hydrological cycle and enhanc-ing water supply in the region, or is rather subject of advection over the Central Asian mountain ranges towards other river catchments. As such, irrigation could also play a positive role for water availability. The planned project HYDRASIA is dedicated to this issue by developing a sophisticated climate model approach, which accounts for those components of the water cycle that are relevant to irrigation and inland lakes in Central Asia. This mainly includes a novel representation of irrigated agriculture and inland lakes in the climate model. The research project is mainly focused on model development with respect to the land surface scheme in the regional climate model REMO, driven at a horizontal resolution of 50 km and 10 km. According to availability, it is also planned to use the new non-hydrostatic version of REMO at an even higher resolution. The extended and calibrated REMO version will then be employed for long-term simulations with greenhouse gas and land use scenarios until 2100. On the one hand, the goal is to assess the impact of global climate change on future wa-ter availability and general boundary conditions for irrigation in Central Asia. On the other hand, the feedbacks of irrigation, i.e. its regulative effect, on the future regional climate will be quantified.

中亚分别代表了干旱和亚热带气候区大规模灌溉的典范。例如，咸海的相关萎缩是众所周知的。相比之下，我们对灌溉农业对亚洲区域水循环的影响的了解相当有限。可以假定，考虑到夏季部分低云量和高全球辐射，锡拉里亚河和阿姆达里亚河沿岸低地的开阔水位和部分密集植被覆盖产生的蒸散是相当可观的。忽略了产生的水汽是否凝结在这些河流的集水区内，从而加强了该地区的水文循环和供水，或者更确切地说，是通过中亚山脉向其他河流集水区平流的对象。因此，灌溉也可以对水的供应起到积极的作用。计划中的HYDRASIA项目致力于这一问题，开发了一种复杂的气候模型方法，该方法考虑了与中亚灌溉和内陆湖泊相关的水循环组成部分。这主要包括气候模型中灌溉农业和内陆湖泊的新表示。该研究项目主要侧重于以50公里和10公里的水平分辨率驱动的区域气候模式REMO中陆面方案的模式开发。根据可获得性，它还计划使用新的非静压版本的REMO，分辨率更高。然后，扩展和校准的REMO版本将用于温室气体和土地使用情景的长期模拟，直到2100年。一方面，目标是评估全球气候变化对中亚未来水资源可获得性和灌溉的一般边界条件的影响。另一方面，将量化灌溉对未来区域气候的反馈，即其调节作用。