Empirical Re-examination of Financial Market Models and the Monetary Policy after the Peregulai

本研究基于一个新创建的金融市场分析数据集。所得结果有三方面：(1)对金融市场结构变化的研究发现；(2)对货币政策变化的研究发现以及对应对金融市场环境变化的货币政策实施方式的建议；(3)对金融机构、监管和金融体系管理的建议。(1)通过对近40年来金融市场成本和收益结构变化的详细分析，明确了金融放松管制对金融机构行为的影响。根据所获得的数据，对近40年来货币政策和金融监管角色的变化进行了实证追踪和记录。(2)利用详实的数据集，对20世纪80年代的货币政策进行了实证检验，从理论和实证上汲取了投机泡沫时期货币政策的教训。在借鉴理性预期理论发展的理论分析基础上，对放松管制后的货币政策提出了清晰的展望和建议。(3)在第(1)部分分析的基础上，分析了与放松管制的金融市场环境相适应的新法规和监管体系。提出了若干促进金融市场稳定和金融机构健全的建议和政策措施。综上所述，从理论上和经验上明确了以下几点：在放松管制的市场条件下，金融机构需要建立以自身责任为基础的风险管理体系。为了支持这一点，监管体制必须重组，以利用市场机制。稳定的货币政策必须在稳定的货币供给原则的基础上，确保可预见和稳定的经济状况。

This research is based on a newly created data set for financial market analysis. The obtained results are three folds : (1) findings on the structural change of the financial market, (2) findings on the change in the monetary and proposals on the proper way to conduct the monetary policy responding to the changed financial market environment, (3) proposals to the management of financial institutions, regulations and the financial system.(1), the detailed analysis on the change in the cost and yield structure of financial markets over last 40 years made the role of financial dereguation on the behavior of financial institutions clear. The changed roles of the monetary policy and financial regulations over the last 40 years are also empirically traced and documented based on the obtained data. (2), Using the detailed extensive data set, an empirical examination of the monetary policy in 1980s was made and lessons from the monetary policy of the days of speculative bubbles were drown theoretically and empirically. Based on a theoretical analysis which benefited from the development of the rational expectations theory, a clear prospect and proposal for the monetary policy after the deregulation are presented. (3), Based on the analysis made in part (1), new regulations and supervisory system which fit to the deregulated financial market environment were analyzed. Number of proposals and policy measures to promote the financial market stability and the soundness of financial institutions are presented.In summary, following points are made clear theoretically and empirically ; Under the deregulated market conditions, financial institution's risk management system based on its own responsibility need to be established. In order to support this, the supervisory system has to be re-structured in order to use the market mechanism. A stable monetary policy which ensures a foreseeable and stable economic conditions has to be adopted based on a stable money supply rule.