Empirical Re-examination of Financial Market Models and the Monetary Policy after the Peregulai

这项研究是基于一个新创建的金融市场分析数据集。研究结果包括三个方面：（1）对金融市场结构变化的研究结果;（2）对货币政策变化的研究结果，并对如何正确实施货币政策以应对变化的金融市场环境提出建议;（3）对金融机构管理、监管和金融体系提出建议。(1)通过对近40年来金融市场成本和收益结构变化的详细分析，明确了金融放松管制对金融机构行为的影响。根据所获得的数据，还对过去40年来货币政策和金融监管角色的变化进行了实证跟踪和记录。(2)本文利用详实的数据对20世纪80年代的货币政策进行了实证检验，从理论和实证两方面总结了投机泡沫时期货币政策的经验教训。在借鉴理性预期理论发展的基础上，对放松管制后的货币政策进行了较为清晰的前景展望和建议。(3)在第一部分分析的基础上，分析了适应放松管制的金融市场环境的新法规和监管体系。本文从理论和实证两个方面提出了促进金融市场稳定和金融机构健康发展的若干建议和政策措施，并得出以下结论：在放松管制的市场条件下，需要建立以金融机构自身责任为基础的金融机构风险管理体系。为了支持这一点，必须重新构建监管体系，以便利用市场机制。必须在稳定的货币供应量规则的基础上采取稳定的货币政策，确保经济状况的可预见和稳定。

This research is based on a newly created data set for financial market analysis. The obtained results are three folds : (1) findings on the structural change of the financial market, (2) findings on the change in the monetary and proposals on the proper way to conduct the monetary policy responding to the changed financial market environment, (3) proposals to the management of financial institutions, regulations and the financial system.(1), the detailed analysis on the change in the cost and yield structure of financial markets over last 40 years made the role of financial dereguation on the behavior of financial institutions clear. The changed roles of the monetary policy and financial regulations over the last 40 years are also empirically traced and documented based on the obtained data. (2), Using the detailed extensive data set, an empirical examination of the monetary policy in 1980s was made and lessons from the monetary policy of the days of speculative bubbles were drown theoretically and empirically. Based on a theoretical analysis which benefited from the development of the rational expectations theory, a clear prospect and proposal for the monetary policy after the deregulation are presented. (3), Based on the analysis made in part (1), new regulations and supervisory system which fit to the deregulated financial market environment were analyzed. Number of proposals and policy measures to promote the financial market stability and the soundness of financial institutions are presented.In summary, following points are made clear theoretically and empirically ; Under the deregulated market conditions, financial institution's risk management system based on its own responsibility need to be established. In order to support this, the supervisory system has to be re-structured in order to use the market mechanism. A stable monetary policy which ensures a foreseeable and stable economic conditions has to be adopted based on a stable money supply rule.