Dynamic forecasts of dairy farming structure; using expert systems

许多地方农业合作社和政府迅速建立了农场数据和其他相关农业信息的收集和数据服务系统。但由于数据本身的局限性，适合利用这些数据的方法并不多，在制定区域农业政策和预测区域农业结构方面的应用并不多。在专家系统中引入区域领导人的经验和知识，更有效、灵活地预测区域经济形势。引入人工智能编程，提高了Markof方法对奶牛场规模结构的预测能力。在专家系统中，利用专家的知识构造转移矩阵。系统动力学模型也被检查作为一个工具的地方政策决策过程。DEMATEL方法对于明确当地农业区的政策目标是非常有效的。本研究还进行了实证分析，以检验奶牛场部门的经济规模。考察了家庭劳动力的限制、采用的技术和经营能力的差异等制约农场规模扩大的条件。北海道与纽约州奶牛场数据的比较表明，采用新的奶牛养殖技术、自由畜棚和挤奶房系统需要充足的劳动力和家庭劳动力。这些结果可以作为重要信息纳入专家系统。特别是在利用人工编程语言进行动态预报方面的研究尚未完成。我们在本研究中展示了这种方法和原型的可能性。

The collecting and data service systems of Farm data and other related agricultural information have been established rapidly in many local agricultural cooperatives and governments. But the data is not so much utilized in planning regional agricultural policy and forecasting regional agricultural structure, because there are not so many methods which are appropriate to utilize these data and the limits of data itself.The regional leaders' experience and knowledge are introduced into the expert system to forecast regional economic situation more efficiently and flexible. Forecasting ability of the structure of dairy farm scale using Markof method has been improved introducing artificial intelligence programming. The knowledge of experts is used to make transition matrix in the expert system. The system dynamics model is also examined as a tool of local policy decision making process. The DEMATEL method is very effective to make clear the target of policy in local agricultural region.The positive analysis have also done in this study to test the scale of economy in dairy farm sector. The conditions to restrict enlarging the farm scale, such as restriction of family labor, the difference of adopted technique and managerial ability are also examined. The comparison of dairy farm data between Hokkaido and New York State showed that enough labor extending family labor is necessary to adopt new dairy farming technology, Free stall barn and Milking parlor system. These results might be included in expert systems as a important information.The study has not completed yet especially in dynamic forecast using artificial programing languages. We showed just the possibility of such method and proto-type in this study.