Near-Earth flux of small bodies of cometary origin

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Purposes :Exact estimates of total population of periodic comets (PC) and impact probabilities with planets are very important in analysis of cratering statistics imprinted on planets and their satellites. The purposes of this research are to obtain correct impact probabilities of PCs and their total number estimate through long-term numerical integration of their orbits.Method :We integrated the orbits of 228 PCs with period less than 1000 years, for +/- 30,000 years. The results of those orbital evolution and close encounters with planets are statistically analyzed.Main results :(1) We found that the total number of invisible PCs which interact with Jupiter is sbout 30 times as many as the number of observable PCs.(2) It is found that the conventional impact probabilities of PCs with the inner Planets estimated by Opik-Wethrill model are 10-40 times overestimated.