Near-Earth flux of small bodies of cometary origin

彗星起源的小天体的近地通量

• 批准号: 06640361
• 负责人: NAKAMURA Tsuko
• 金额: $ 1.22万
• 依托单位: National Astronomical Observatory
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1994 至 1995
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06640361/
• 关键词: Comets; Asteroids; Impact probability; 軌道進化

Purposes :Exact estimates of total population of periodic comets (PC) and impact probabilities with planets are very important in analysis of cratering statistics imprinted on planets and their satellites. The purposes of this research are to obtain correct impact probabilities of PCs and their total number estimate through long-term numerical integration of their orbits.Method :We integrated the orbits of 228 PCs with period less than 1000 years, for +/- 30,000 years. The results of those orbital evolution and close encounters with planets are statistically analyzed.Main results :(1) We found that the total number of invisible PCs which interact with Jupiter is sbout 30 times as many as the number of observable PCs.(2) It is found that the conventional impact probabilities of PCs with the inner Planets estimated by Opik-Wethrill model are 10-40 times overestimated.

目的：精确估计周期彗星的总数量和与行星的撞击概率，对于分析行星及其卫星的撞击坑统计是非常重要的。本研究的目的是通过对228颗周期小于1000年的PC轨道进行长期数值积分，得到正确的撞击概率和PC总数估计值。主要结果：（1）我们发现与木星相互作用的不可见光子数约为可观测光子数的30倍。(2)结果表明，传统的Opik-Wethrill模型估计的PC与内行星的碰撞概率高估了10-40倍。

项目成果

T.Nakamura: "Size dependence of asteroid belt structure" ASP Conf.series, "Seventy-five years of Hirayama asteroid families". vol.63. 52-61 (1994)

T.Nakamura：“小行星带结构的大小依赖性”ASP Conf.series，“平山小行星家族的七十五年”。

M. Yoshikawa: "Near-misses in orbital motion of asteroids" Icarus. 108. 298-308 (1994)

M. Yoshikawa：“小行星轨道运动中的惊险事件”伊卡洛斯。

T.Nakamura & M.Yoshikawa: "Close encounters and collisions of short-period comets with Jupiter and its satellites" Icarus. 116. 113-130 (1995)

中村先生

M.Yoshikawa and T.Nakamura: "Near-misses in orbital motion of asteroids" Icarus. vol.108. 298-308 (1994)

M.Yoshikawa 和 T.Nakamura：“小行星轨道运动中的未遂事件”伊卡洛斯。

T.Nakamura and M.Yoshikawa: "Exponential growth of round-trip error and instability of orbits of small bodies in the outer solar system" Planet.Space Sci.vol.43. 801-815 (1995)

T.Nakamura 和 M.Yoshikawa：“往返误差的指数增长和外太阳系小天体轨道的不稳定性”Planet.Space Sci.vol.43。