Prognostic methods and future scenarios in language policy – multilingual Russia as an example

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Sociolinguistic prognostic methods and models have been research desiderata since the development of language policy and planning. The proposed joint project fills the following gaps: the lack of awareness of theoretical and practical significance of language prognosis as an instrument of language policy and planning, the lack of fundamental research works on the prognostic problem due to its interdisciplinary nature, and the underdevelopment of concepts in the language scenario field. The lack of appropriate methods and models is reflected in the hot societal debates about the language policy management. The research question of our joint project adresses the future of multilingualism in the multinational Russian Federation. The objective of the joint project is to systematically explore the foundations for prognostic models and methods in selected fields of language policy. We aim to develop an interdisciplinary approach to sociolinguistic prognosis on the basis of the future scenario method and, thus, to work out prognostic models and methods in language policy considering their effectiveness in regard to the language policy and planning. Furthermore, we seek to demonstrate their applicability on the basis of the language situation of the Russian Federation. In doing so, we elaborate strategies and derive from the prognostic models recommendations for the language policy in the Russian Federation, a country with an unprecedented language diversity on the Eurasian continent.The proposed joint project uses qualitative and quantitative methods. The project corpus comprises various sources, including intensive field work in Russia’s regions.The use of prognostic models in language policy helps to develop strategies, increases the productivity of the language policy measures and supports language conflict prevention. Thus, the joint project is of high societal relevance: the development of prognostic methods and models in the language policy of the Russian Federation, taking into account the latest research in this area and the practical experience of other countries, is important for planning public policy and effectively regulating interethnic relations in the Russian Federation. The proposed joint project brings together the experience of researchers in Germany and Russia specialized in language policy: Monika Wingender as head of the interdisciplinary "Giessen Center for Eastern European Studies" and Aysa Bitkeeva, leading researcher of the "Research Center of language and ethnic relations" of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Both centers have a long-standing tradition in research of language situation, language policy, and language planning spheres in theoretical and practical aspects. Russia that traditionally plays the role of a link between the "western" and "eastern" civilizations is a perfect object of research where the scenario method can be elaborated and applicated.