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Mathematical Modeling and Process Description of Group Decision Making

群体决策的数学建模和过程描述

基本信息

批准号：
10551002
负责人：
SHIGEMASU Kazuo
金额：
$ 3.39万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1998 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Conflicts and resolutions between normative models and descriptive models have been our research concern. For example, some mathematical aggregation rule and simple majority rule were compared in terms of efficiency in the group decision-making situation. For public decision making, the methodology to measure what people actually have in mind is very important and we investigated the possibility to apply the method of measuring subjective probability by means of language expression.Our feeling is that our ordinary decision making purports to reach some kind of rationality. From this point, we tried to find the justification for the subjects' typical responses, which are often regarded as the wrong responses. More concretely, we made three research efforts to investigate how this affects subjects change in the sequential responses. One is the experiment using Wason's four card problem. We showed that mathematical normative model predicts that when the prior probability is small and the rule itself is probabilistic, typical "wrong" responses can be justified, although real subjects' data did not show the clear tendency to meet this normative prediction. Also, we showed that in the sequential decision making task known as the "secretary problem", subjects' responses became closer to the rational solution. In the third task, Damasio's "gamble task", it was shown that whether subjects approached the normative solution or not depended subjects emotional responses which was measured by skin conductance responses.

规范模型与描述模型之间的冲突与解决一直是我们研究的重点。例如，在群体决策情况下，比较了一些数学聚合规则和简单多数决规则的效率。在公共决策中，衡量人们实际想法的方法是非常重要的，我们研究了用语言表达来衡量主观概率的方法的可能性。我们的感觉是，我们的日常决策旨在达到某种理性。从这一点出发，我们试图找到被试的典型反应的理由，这些反应通常被认为是错误的反应。更具体地说，我们做了三个研究努力来调查这如何影响受试者在顺序反应中的变化。一个是使用沃森的四张牌问题的实验。我们发现，数学规范模型预测，当先验概率较小且规则本身是概率性的时，典型的“错误”反应可以被证明是合理的，尽管真实受试者的数据并没有显示出满足这一规范预测的明显趋势。此外，我们还发现，在被称为“秘书问题”的顺序决策任务中，受试者的反应更接近理性解决方案。在达马西奥的“赌博任务”中，研究表明受试者是否接近规范解决方案取决于受试者的情绪反应，情绪反应是通过皮肤电导反应来测量的。