Evaluation of Seismic Ground-Motion and Estimation of Seismic Disaster by Using Array Earthquake Observation Network in Kyoto Valley

本研究旨在利用京都地区的台阵地震观测网，建立评估地震动及评估震害的方法论。研究结果表明：观测到的地震动特性受京都谷地地质结构和台阵地震观测网各观测站土层结构的影响，研究了结构体系和地震激励模拟中的重要不确定性参数，并将其建模为随机变量。研究了利用地面结构地震加速度观测数据进行结构参数随机识别和结构响应随机估计的分析方法。在1995年Hyougoken-Nanbu地震和2000年Tottoriken-Seibu地震中，大量建筑物遭到严重破坏。对木结构房屋的震害进行了调查。特别是在鸟取县的日野町，人们仔细研究了木质建筑的方法和技术。研究发现，木结构房屋的震害受木结构房屋的建造方法和地震地面运动特性的影响较大。本文根据1995年日本南部大地震和2000年日本托托里肯-西武地震等历次地震灾害，提出了房屋震害的预测和评估方法。提出了木结构房屋的易损性曲线。要建立木结构房屋震害预测和评估方法，结构中存在许多不确定性，尤其是木结构房屋。因此，需要对动态特性的不确定度进行观测和实验研究。

This study aims to construct methodologies in order to evaluate seismic ground-motions and to estimate seismic damages by making use of the array earthquake observation network in Kyoto area. The results obtained here are summarized as follows:The characteristics of observed seismic ground-motions are influenced by the geological structure of Kyoto valley and the structure of soil-layers at each observation station the array earthquake observation network.The important uncertain parameters in modeling structural systems and seismic excitations are investigated, and they are modeled as random variables. The analytical methods for stochastic identification of structural parameters and stochastic estimation of structural responses from observations of seismic accelerations on ground-structures are studied.In the 1995 Hyougoken-nanbu earthquake and 2000 Tottoriken-seibu earthquake, a large number of buildings were seriously damaged. The seismic damages of wood houses were investigated. In particular, the wood construction methods and techniques were closely examined in Hino-cho, Tottori. It is found that the damages of wood houses are influenced distinguishedly the construction methods of wood houses as well as the characteristics of seismic ground-motions.The prediction and estimation methods for the damages of buildings due to earthquakes were developed on the basis of past earthquake disasters such as the 1995 Hyougoken-nanbu earthquake and 2000 Tottoriken-seibu earthquake. The fragility curves for wood houses are proposed. To establish the prediction and estimation methods for seismic damages of wood houses, there are many uncertainties in structures, in particular, wood houses. Therefore the observation and experimental studies on uncertainties of dynamic properties are needed.