Development of Economical Evaluation Method on Information System Investment during Monetary Crisis

本研究的出发点是认识到股票市场上信息技术资产对企业价值贡献的计量适用于行业信息系统投资的评估，而不适用于企业特定的信息系统。首先，我们选取了以实际投入产出组合距离生产前沿面的距离为衡量标准的技术效率指标，对1993-99年期间我国银行业的几种资产与技术效率之间的相互作用进行了横截面分析。我们的统计计算机软件是LIMDEP ver.8.0，Econometric Software Inc。实现这一效率最困难的条件是如何界定银行的生产。我们尝试了五种定义来衡量它，当我们使用存款和净贷款的总价值的定义时，发现统计上显著的情况最多：贷款扣除不良贷款。研究还表明，计算机软件资产对这一效率始终具有稳定的正向影响。该评价方法将应用于单个银行的时间序列分析。其次，我们认识到单个银行的组织结构和人力资本是信息系统运行的决定性因素。我们开发了这些因素的统计评估方法。本研究以分层抽样方式，将600份资讯科技策略问卷邮寄至日本邮政总局各邮政局。最终收到的回复数为326。对这些答案的交叉列表分析得出了我们的第三个发现，在职培训和管理分散对于提高IT投资的技术效率很重要。最后，为了使IT投资评估多样化，引入了日本四大银行集团的平衡记分卡。财务数据与IT指数等其他数据呈反向移动。这是我们的第四个发现。

This research started from the recognition that the measurement of information technology assets contribution to the firms' value in the stock market is proper to the evaluation of industries' information system investment but not to one of firms' specific information system. At first, we selected technical efficiency index defined by the distance of the actual inputs and output combination from the production frontier in order to take cross section analyses of the interaction between individual banks' several types of assets and this efficiency during the time of 1993-99. Our statistical computer software was LIMDEP ver.8.0, Econometric Software Inc. the most difficult condition to this efficiency was how to define the production of bank. We tried five types of definition to measure it. The largest number of the statistically significant cases was founded when we used the definition of total value of deposit and net loans: loans deducted by nonperforming loans. It was also cleared that the computer software asset always had stable positive effect to this efficiency. This evaluation method will be applied to time series analysis of individual bank.Second, we realized that organization constitution and human capital of individual bank were decisive factors to information system working. We developed a statistical evaluation method of these factors. We mailed 600 IT strategy questionnaires to the blanch bureaus of Japan Postal Service by stratified sampling. The final number of returned answers was 326. The analyses of cross tabulation for these answers derived our third finding that on the job training and management decentralization were important to improve the technical efficiency concerning IT investment. Finally, balanced scorecards of four largest Japanese banking groups were introduced in order to diversify IT investment evaluation. Financial data were reciprocal movement to the other data including IT index. This was our forth finding.