Policy simulation of the effect of ICT to the employment and social welfare

本研究的目的是基于动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE模型）来估计云计算系统对日本经济的影响。第一步是分三次对东京证券交易所上市公司进行邮寄调查。然后澄清了10%的上市公司采用纯云计算系统，即所谓的公共计算系统。第二步，利用这一统计发现对DSGE模型进行了动态仿真。当时估计全要素生产率将提高10%。在第三步，对所有的脉冲响应函数进行了检验。从长期来看，国民生产总值下降，投资、资本存量和劳动力供给增加，工资下降，消费减少。社会福利的趋势是模糊的。

The object of this research is to estimate the effect of cloud computing system to Japanese economy based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, DSGE model. At the first step the mailing surveys to the listed companies at Tokyo Stock Exchange Market were conducted in three times. Then it was clarified that the 10 percent of listed companies employed pure cloud computing system, so-called public computing system. At the second step a dynamic simulation of DSGE model was conducted by this statistical finding. Then it was estimated that the total factor productivity will increase in 10 percent. At the third step all of the impulse response functions were examined. Then it was clarified that GNP decreased, investment, capital stock and labor supply increased, wages decreased and the consumptions decreased in the long run. The trend of social welfare was ambiguous.