A Study on the methods of economic valuation of water environmental pollution risk in urban area

城市水环境污染风险经济评价方法研究

• 批准号: 14390044
• 负责人: HAGIHARA Kiyoko
• 金额: $ 3.65万
• 依托单位: Tokyo Metropolitan University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2002 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14390044/
• 关键词: environmental pollution risk; risk management; economic valuation; urban area; risk perception of people; risk sharing; 水質汚染リスク; バングラデシュ; ヒ素; 衛生改善技術; 水質リスク; エージェンシー理論; リスク分担制度; 事後的マネジメント; 情報の非対称性; モラルハザード; 支払い意思額; 土壌汚染; ノンポイントソース

The possible risk management process and control options of rainfall-related risks were discussed after a summary of both the similar and differing points between inundation risk and environmental pollution risk. As a result, it was deemed necessary to operate a scheme to raise the rainfall-related environmental risk perception level of urban residents to ensure their participation in risk management.We showed a model that takes into account a bounded rationality on the ability of risk perception, information situation, and people's threshold acceptance of risk. Marginal willingness to pay for public investment is high when there is no or little averting behavior. Moreover, it was shown that consumers' perception of risk is largely dependent on information on risk, countermeasures taken by public authorities, and overconfidence in private averting goods. We developed the model of risk sharing systems for these costs; a kind of pollution insurance system for regional public sectors which supply municipal water.In the model based on the contract theory, optimal condition for the insurance contract were investigated, which determined the rule for efficient level of insurance and investment level in purification system. Applying the standard analytical process for the asymmetric information to the model, we had an implication that the investment level for purification system and insurance distributed could be supplied excessively when the level of contamination at each region is private information of the regional body. Considering that the inefficiency associated with the contamination risk sharing system could be serious, the efficiency of the risk sharing system should be compared with the implication of other ex post allocation systems.

在总结了洪水风险与环境污染风险的相似点和不同点的基础上，探讨了洪水风险的可能管理过程和控制方案。因此，有必要实施一项计划，以提高城市居民的商业相关的环境风险感知水平，以确保他们参与风险管理。我们提出了一个模型，考虑到风险感知能力，信息的情况下，人们的阈值接受风险的有限理性。当没有或很少有规避行为时，为公共投资支付的边际意愿很高。此外，研究表明，消费者对风险的看法在很大程度上取决于关于风险的信息、公共当局采取的反措施以及对私人规避商品的过度自信。建立了城市供水区域公共部门污染保险的风险分担模型，在此模型中，基于契约理论，研究了保险契约的最优条件，确定了有效保险水平和净化系统投资水平的准则。将标准的信息不对称分析过程应用于该模型，得到了当各区域的污染水平是区域主体的私有信息时，净化系统和保险分配的投资水平可以过度供给的结论。考虑到污染风险分担制度的低效率可能是严重的，风险分担制度的效率应与其他事后分配制度的影响进行比较。

项目成果

Hagihara K., Hagihara Y.: "Marginal Willingness to Pay for Public Investment under Urban Environmental Risk : the Case of Municipal Water Use"Environment and Planning C : Government and Policy. (掲載予定). (2004)

Hagihara K.、Hagihara Y.：“城市环境风险下公共投资的边际支付意愿：市政用水案例”环境与规划 C：政府与政策（即将出版）。

バングラデシュにおける飲料水ヒ素汚染に関する社会調査とその分析

孟加拉国饮用水砷污染社会调查与分析

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 環境システム論文集 Vol.32
• 作者: 福島陽介;萩原良巳;畑山満則;萩原清子;山村尊房;酒井彰;神谷大介
• 通讯作者: 神谷大介

Integrated Research on Methodological Development of Urban Diagnosis for Disaster Risk and its Application

城市灾害风险诊断方法学集成研究及其应用

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Annuals of Disas. Prey Inst., Kyoto Univ. No.47 C
• 作者: Okada;N.;Tatano;H;Hagihara;Y.;Suzuki;Y.;Hayashi;Y;Hatayama;M.;Hartman;J.;Nagase;T.;Shimizu;H.
• 通讯作者: H.

Sato Y., Y.Hagihara: "Decision-making System under the Conflict Situation between Water Resources Development and Environmental Conservation"Proceedings of the 3^<rd> DPRI-IIASA International Symposium on Integrated Disaster Risk Management. (CD-ROM). (20

Sato Y.，Y.Hagihara：“水资源开发与环境保护冲突情况下的决策系统”第三届DPRI-IIASA国际综合灾害风险管理研讨会论文集。

萩原 清子 編著 萩原良巳他執筆: "環境の評価と意思決定"東京都立大学出版会(発行予定). (2004)

Kiyoko Hagiwara（编辑）Yoshimi Hagiwara等：《环境评估与决策》东京都立大学出版社（待出版）。