Study on development of agricultural system model on a large scale

大规模监测作物状况和产量估计对粮食供应很重要。本研究的目的是：（1）利用地球静止气象卫星的太阳辐射资料和气象格网的逐日和逐时常规观测资料绘制气象值;（2）通过耦合作物生长模型和气象资料估算模型来模拟作物生长;（3）将卫星资料估算气象变量的技术应用于国外，（4）利用密集观测点监测农业生产环境信息。(1)We利用晴空识别算法和土地利用数据对现有太阳辐射估算模型进行了改进，RMS误差为16%，能够较好地从常规观测数据中估算网格气象数据（气温、风速和日照时数）。(2)We已经演示了作物模拟模型的使用，以及通过GMS图像和气象数据估计的太阳辐射数据。该系统在RMS误差为65 kg/10a的情况下显示水稻产量预测。我们期望本研究所开发的系统所提供的作物生长和产量分布，可用于咨询农民，分析气象灾害对作物的损害，预测气候变化对作物产量的影响。(3)We应用气象卫星资料估算黄河流域净辐射和降水量的方法，在中国，水资源短缺，减少农业生产。所得结果令人满意。(4)By利用气象观测机器人网络的数据，以250 m为网格，得到小麦成熟期预测图，并建立了基于霜冻概率的作物冻害风险图。

Monitoring crop condition and production estimates on a large scale is important for food supply. The objectives of the study are (1)mapping meteorological values by use of Geostationary Meteorological Satellite data for solar radiation and by routine observation data for meteorological grid data on daily and hourly basis, (2)simulating crop growth by coupling of crop growth model and estimation model for meteorological data, (3)applying estimation technique for meteorological variables by satellite data to a foreign country, and (4)monitoring environmental information for agricultural production by dense observation points.The main results are as follows. (1)We have improved existing model for estimating solar radiation by use of clear sky recognition algorithm and land use data with RMS Error of 16%, and could estimate grid meteorological data (air temperature, wind speed and sunshine duration) from routinely observed data fairly well. (2)We have demonstrated the use of a crop simulation model together with solar radiation data estimated by GMS images and meteorological data. The system showed rice yield predictions at RMS Error of 65kg/10a. We expect that the distribution of crop growth and crop yield by the system developed in this study will be used for consulting farmers, analyzing crop damage by meteorological disaster and predicting crop yield change by climate change. (3)We have applied the method for estimating net radiation and precipitation by meteorological satellite data on Yellow River basin in China where water shortage is reducing agricultural production. The obtained results were satisfactory. (4)By using the data of a meteorological observation robot network, the wheat maturity period prediction map could be obtained by the grid of 250m, and the risk map of the frost damage of crops based on frost probability has been created.