A development of travel demand forecasting system composed of an activity simulation model and a dynamic traffic simulation model

本研究提出一个乘客出行需求微观模拟模型系统，以取代传统的基于出行的乘客出行需求预测方法。该系统包括三个子模型：PCATS，它模拟个人的活动和旅行沿着时间轴，DEBNetS的地方的自动行程PCATS产生的道路网络和动态模拟交通流沿着时间轴，和HAGS的年龄家庭和产生他们的未来属性的应用程序的微观模拟系统的非集计模型组件的长期预测。该模型系统被应用于短期政策评估在京都市，并在大坂市的替代长期规划包的评价。

A micro-simulation model system of passenger travel demand is proposed in this study as an alternative to conventional, trip-based passenger travel demand forecasting methods. The system comprises three sub-models : PCATS which simulates individuals activity and travel along a time axis, DEBNetS which places the auto trips produced by PCATS on road networks and simulates traffic flow dynamically along the time axis, and HAGS which ages households and generates their future attributes for application of disaggregate model components of the microsimulation system to long-range forecasting. The model system is applied for short-term policy evaluation in the City of Kyoto, and for evaluation of alternative long-range planning packages in the City of Osaka.