A development of travel demand forecasting system composed of an activity simulation model and a dynamic traffic simulation model

本文提出了一种旅客出行需求微观仿真模型系统，以替代传统的基于出行的旅客出行需求预测方法。该系统由三个子模型组成：PCATS沿着时间轴模拟个人活动和旅行，DEBNetS将PCATS生成的汽车行程放在道路网络上并沿着时间轴动态模拟交通流，HAGS对家庭进行年龄划分并生成其未来属性，用于微模拟系统的分解模型组件进行长期预测。该模型系统用于京都市的短期政策评价，以及大阪市的备选长期规划方案评价。

A micro-simulation model system of passenger travel demand is proposed in this study as an alternative to conventional, trip-based passenger travel demand forecasting methods. The system comprises three sub-models : PCATS which simulates individuals activity and travel along a time axis, DEBNetS which places the auto trips produced by PCATS on road networks and simulates traffic flow dynamically along the time axis, and HAGS which ages households and generates their future attributes for application of disaggregate model components of the microsimulation system to long-range forecasting. The model system is applied for short-term policy evaluation in the City of Kyoto, and for evaluation of alternative long-range planning packages in the City of Osaka.