Household Car Ownership Simulation Model-Demand for Clear-fuel Vehides-

本研究基于日本、美国和中国的家庭调查数据，分析了日本家庭拥有汽车的行为。在日本，家庭拥有的汽车数量有限，家庭成员之间的使用存在竞争。在认识到车辆类型选择和驾驶员车辆分配是高度相关决策的基础上，建立了车辆行驶里程的同时车辆类型和主要驾驶员选择模型和模型。同时，考虑到车辆一次使用的排他性，建立了一种模式选择模型。在美国，多车家庭很流行，家庭通过逐个更换来更换车队。因此，连续的交易不是独立的，而是高度相互关联的。交易也受到家庭属性变化的影响。考虑前一次交易的影响和家庭属性的变化，我们对家庭汽车交易行为进行了分析。这些阶段的家庭拥有汽车行为不仅受到经济因素的制约，而且还受到心理和社会因素的影响，因为汽车周围的环境不稳定，消费者没有拥有汽车的经验。研究提出了符号效用的概念，即拥有汽车的心理满意度。在分析汽车拥有者态度因果结构的基础上，构建了一个模型系统。

In this study, we analyzed the household vehicle ownership behavior based on the data set obtained by household survey conducted in Japan, United States, and China.In Japan, the number of the vehicles owned by a household is limited, and its usage is competitive among household members. Simultaneous vehicle type and main driver choice models and models of vehicle miles traveled are developed, based on the recognition that vehicle type choice and the vehicle allocation to drivers are highly inter-related decisions. Also, a mode choice model is developed considering the exclusiveness in the usage of the vehicle at a time.In U.S., Multi-car households are popular, and the households change their fleet by replacing one by one. Thus, the successive transactions are not independent, but highly inter-related. The transactions are also affected by the changes in household attributes. We analyzed the households vehicle transactions behavior considering the effects of the preceding transaction and the changes in household attributes.China is in earlier stages of motorization now. Household vehicle ownership behavior in these stages is governed by not only economic but also psychological and sociological factors, because the circumstances around the vehicle is unstable and the consumers have no experiences owning a vehicle.The study-proposed a concept of "symbolic utility", which refers to psychological satisfaction from vehicle ownership. Based on analyzing the causal structure among attitudes towards vehicle ownership, a model system is developed.