A study on panel survey and panel analysis for transportation planning

态度改变或行为改变的模型需要重复测量，只有在面板中才能获得。如果分析需要准确的出行行为测量，这种数据不能从对横断面提出的回溯性问题中获得，而必须通过小组调查的重复测量获得。从分析上看，“纵向数据通常在分类因果模式时提供了更多的统计杠杆，因为它们使分析者能够将持续的人际差异的影响与真实的跨期关系分开”(Duncan等人，1987)。特别是，众所周知，当未观察到的异质性存在时，不可能使用横断面数据进行一致的模型估计(例如Davies&Pickles，1985)。基于这种认识，我们的研究小组开发了几个动态模型，用于个人的出行和活动行为、家庭车辆拥有量和车辆拥有量的综合指标。使用面板数据建立了考虑未观察到的个体异质性或面板磨损偏差的出行行为模型。本课题组在1996年和1997年的基础设施规划年会上举行了两次专门的面板分析和面板调查会议。在这些特别会议中，报告了使用面板数据或方法来处理面板磨损、条件化或疲劳产生的偏差的个人动态行为模型。并讨论了太阳能电池板在实际交通规划中的优势和可行性。

Models of attitude change or behavioral change require repeated measurements obtainable only in panels. If accurate measurements of travel behavior are required for the analysis, such data cannot be obtained from retrospective questions asked of a cross section, but must be obtained by repeated measurements from a panel survey. Analytically, "Longitudinal data often provide more statistical leverage in sorting out causal patterns because they enable the analyst to separate effects of persistent interpersonal differences from real inter-temporal relationships" (Duncan, et al., 1987). In particular, it is well established that consistent model estimation is not possible with cross-sectional data when unobserved heterogeneity is present which tends to be in variant over time (e.g., Davies & Pickles, 1985).With this recognition, our research group has developed several dynamic models for an individual's travel and activity behavior, household vehicle ownership and aggregated indicator for vehicle ownership. Travel behavior models that account for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals or bias of panel attrition are developed using panel data.Our research group held two special sessions for panel analysis and panel survey in annual meeting on infrastructure planning in 1996 and 1997. In these special sessions, models of individuals' dynamic behavior using panel data or methodology for dealing with biases generated with panel attrition, conditioning or fatigue are reported. And advantages and availability in actual transportation planning of panel are discussed.