A study on panel survey and panel analysis for transportation planning

态度改变或行为改变的模型需要反复测量，只有在小组中才能得到。如果分析需要对旅行行为进行精确测量，则不能从横截面的回顾性问题中获得此类数据，而必须通过小组调查的重复测量来获得。在分析上，“纵向数据通常在整理因果模式方面提供更多的统计杠杆作用，因为它们使分析师能够将持续的人际差异的影响与真正的跨时间关系分开”（Duncan, et al, 1987）。特别是，众所周知，当未观察到的异质性随着时间的推移而变化时，不可能使用横截面数据进行一致的模型估计（例如，Davies & Pickles, 1985）。认识到这一点，我们的研究小组开发了几个动态模型，用于个人的旅行和活动行为，家庭车辆拥有量和车辆拥有量的综合指标。使用面板数据开发了考虑未观察到的个体异质性或面板磨损偏差的旅行行为模型。我们的研究小组在一九九六年及一九九七年的基建规划周年会议上举行了两次专题会议，进行小组分析及小组调查。在这些特别会议上，报告了使用小组数据或方法处理小组磨损，条件反射或疲劳产生的偏见的个人动态行为模型。并讨论了面板在实际运输规划中的优势和可用性。

Models of attitude change or behavioral change require repeated measurements obtainable only in panels. If accurate measurements of travel behavior are required for the analysis, such data cannot be obtained from retrospective questions asked of a cross section, but must be obtained by repeated measurements from a panel survey. Analytically, "Longitudinal data often provide more statistical leverage in sorting out causal patterns because they enable the analyst to separate effects of persistent interpersonal differences from real inter-temporal relationships" (Duncan, et al., 1987). In particular, it is well established that consistent model estimation is not possible with cross-sectional data when unobserved heterogeneity is present which tends to be in variant over time (e.g., Davies & Pickles, 1985).With this recognition, our research group has developed several dynamic models for an individual's travel and activity behavior, household vehicle ownership and aggregated indicator for vehicle ownership. Travel behavior models that account for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals or bias of panel attrition are developed using panel data.Our research group held two special sessions for panel analysis and panel survey in annual meeting on infrastructure planning in 1996 and 1997. In these special sessions, models of individuals' dynamic behavior using panel data or methodology for dealing with biases generated with panel attrition, conditioning or fatigue are reported. And advantages and availability in actual transportation planning of panel are discussed.